When AI agents buy and sell
1. Key Themes
Theme 1: The Machine Economy — AI Agents as a New Class of Economic Participant
AI agents are emerging as autonomous economic actors, creating an entirely new addressable market with potentially no ceiling.
"AI agents, computer programs capable of acting autonomously, can increasingly operate as economic participants and can potentially form an entirely new market. Many refer to this market as the machine economy."
"PitchBook estimates that roughly $20 trillion of today's knowledge work is AI-exposed, but only about 1% of it is handled by agents. Adoption is likely to accelerate as the cost of AI tokens comes down."
"Payment leaders and investors are concentrating on the layer that makes the machine economy possible: letting agents transact."
Theme 2: Secondaries Market at Record Volume, Driven by Continuation Funds
Sponsors are using continuation funds to hold trophy assets longer, fueling a secondary market surge to historic highs.
"Single-asset continuation funds powered the secondary market to a record $120 billion in H1, as sponsors chose to hold trophy assets longer rather than sell into a sluggish exit market."
"Clipway's close comes as secondaries fundraising success is increasingly concentrated among managers with scale, differentiated access, and established LP relationships, even as overall dealmaking momentum holds up."
Theme 3: AI-Native Infrastructure for the Machine Economy Is Attracting Capital
A new layer of infrastructure — payments rails, compute platforms, and learning loops built specifically for AI agents — is attracting meaningful early-stage VC capital.
"Natural, the developer of a payments infrastructure platform for AI agents, raised a $30 million Series A led by Forerunner."
"Global agent GDP sits at a $36 billion annual run rate, according to estimates by Forsy, a startup that develops the learning loops that govern the actions of AI agents."
"Companies are adapting by making products discoverable, accessible and usable by agents, and by building revenue models around how machines consume services."
Theme 4: Climate Tech in Emerging Markets Hits Record Investment
Climate tech VC is no longer a purely Western phenomenon — emerging markets, particularly India, are now commanding record capital flows.
"VC funding for the climate-tech industry in emerging markets hit a record $1.9 billion in 2025, with India dominating."
Theme 5: PE Deal Activity Cooling Under Macro and AI-Driven Disruption
Private equity deal value fell sharply in Q2 2026, signaling a broad market deceleration.
"Global PE deal value dropped 22.8% quarter-over-quarter to $419.9 billion in Q2, the lowest total since Q2 2024, as geopolitical and AI-driven disruption cooled the momentum from late 2025."
2. Contrarian Perspectives
Perspective 1: The Machine Economy TAM May Be Literally Uncapped
The conventional instinct is to size a market using historical analogs. The article suggests that framing breaks down entirely for the machine economy.
"Some believe the addressable market has no ceiling because the machine economy scales with how much knowledge work people want done—which is basically infinite."
Supporting evidence: OpenAI processes over 15 billion tokens per minute through APIs. Google processed 3.2 quadrillion tokens in May 2026, up from 9.7 trillion two years ago — a roughly 330x increase in approximately two years.
Perspective 2: Bots Now Outpace Humans in Web Traffic — We Are Already in the Machine Economy
The framing of the machine economy as "emerging" may be behind the curve. By web traffic, machines already dominate.
"Bots now generate more web traffic than humans, per Cloudflare CEO Matthew Prince."
This implies companies optimizing products exclusively for human UX are already misaligned with actual usage patterns.
Perspective 3: A Three-Year-Old Debut Fund Can Beat Entrenched Incumbents at Scale — With the Right Tech
The conventional wisdom in alternative asset management is that scale and LP relationships are insurmountable moats. Clipway's $6.4B debut challenges that view directly.
"The raise defies a trend toward capital consolidating around scale incumbents, as it leverages an AI-driven sourcing system built to compete with much larger rivals."
"Two-thirds of the transaction volume deployed was sourced on a proprietary and off-market basis."
The fund closed 60% above its original $4B target and set a global record for debut secondaries vehicles, surpassing Apollo's prior record of $5.4B.
3. Companies Identified
- Description: Startup that develops learning loops governing AI agent behavior
- Why mentioned: Provides the estimate that global agent GDP sits at a $36B annual run rate
- Quote: "Global agent GDP sits at a $36 billion annual run rate, according to estimates by Forsy, a startup that develops the learning loops that govern the actions of AI agents."
Clipway
- Description: London-based secondaries investment firm founded by Ardian veterans; closed its debut fund at $6.4B
- Why mentioned: Set the global record for a debut secondaries fund, using an AI-driven deal sourcing system (TESS) to compete against established players
- Quote: "Clipway sets itself apart by embedding its own tech-enabled system, TESS, throughout its investment process — a database covering more than 38,500 private companies that screens and underwrites deals before a human reviews them."
- Description: China-based AI laboratory
- Why mentioned: In talks to raise a final pre-IPO round at a valuation of up to $50B
- Quote: "China-based AI lab Moonshot AI is in talks to raise a final pre-IPO funding round at a valuation of as much as $50 billion."
- Description: Developer of a payments infrastructure platform built specifically for AI agents
- Why mentioned: Raised a $30M Series A; directly plays the "letting agents transact" investment theme
- Quote: "Natural, the developer of a payments infrastructure platform for AI agents, raised a $30 million Series A led by Forerunner."
- Description: AI infrastructure / compute platform startup
- Why mentioned: Raised an $830M Series A — a signal of massive capital concentration in AI compute
- Quote: "AI infrastructure startup Fluidstack raised an $830 million Series A led by Situational Awareness."
Colossal Biosciences
- Description: Startup aiming to bring extinct species back to life using genetic technology
- Why mentioned: In talks to raise at a $20B–$30B valuation — a remarkable signal of speculative capital appetite
- Quote: "Colossal Biosciences, a startup aiming to bring species back from extinction, is in talks to raise a round at a valuation of between $20 billion and $30 billion."
Ant International
- Description: Digital payments company (international arm of Ant Group)
- Why mentioned: Secured a $1.2B Series A, backed by Ant Group and Alibaba Group
- Quote: "Digital payments company Ant International secured a $1.2 billion Series A from investors including Ant Group and Alibaba Group."
GigaAI
- Description: Beijing-based AI startup
- Why mentioned: Raising at a $3B valuation and exploring a Hong Kong IPO
- Quote: "Beijing-based AI startup GigaAI is raising a new round at a $3 billion valuation and is in talks to pursue a Hong Kong IPO."
Augustus
- Description: Fintech developer of a banking platform
- Why mentioned: Raised a $180M Series B at a $1B valuation, led by Tiger Global
- Quote: "Fintech Augustus, the developer of a banking platform, secured a $180 million Series B led by Tiger Global at a $1 billion valuation."
Twenty
- Description: Cyber warfare platform developer
- Why mentioned: Secured a $30M investment from Khosla Ventures at a $1.2B valuation
- Quote: "Cyber warfare platform developer Twenty secured a $30 million investment from Khosla Ventures at a $1.2 billion valuation."
InMobi
- Description: SoftBank-backed mobile advertising company
- Why mentioned: Selected banks for an IPO expected to raise ~$1B
- Quote: "SoftBank Group-backed mobile advertising company InMobi selected banks for its IPO, which is expected to raise about $1 billion."
Gritt
- Description: Developer of AI and robotics systems for infrastructure construction
- Why mentioned: Emerged from stealth with $32M, including a $26M Series A led by Obvious Ventures
- Quote: "Gritt, which develops AI and robotics systems for infrastructure construction, emerged from stealth with $32 million, including a $26 million Series A led by Obvious Ventures."
SkyPilot
- Description: AI compute platform developer
- Why mentioned: Raised a $20M seed round led by Lux Capital
- Quote: "AI compute platform developer SkyPilot received a $20 million seed round led by Lux Capital."
4. People Identified
Rudy Yang
- Description: Senior Research Analyst, Enterprise Fintech and Retail Fintech at PitchBook
- Why mentioned: Author of the machine economy analyst note and accompanying newsletter section
- Quote: Byline on the "How to measure an infinite-dollar market" piece
Matthew Prince
- Description: CEO of Cloudflare
- Why mentioned: Cited as the source for the data point that bots now generate more web traffic than humans
- Quote: "Bots now generate more web traffic than humans, per Cloudflare CEO Matthew Prince."
Vincent Gombault, Ingmar Vallano, and Benoît Verbrugghe
- Description: Founding partners of Clipway, all former Ardian veterans
- Why mentioned: Built Clipway from scratch in three years and closed the largest-ever debut secondaries fund
- Quote: "The firm—which was set up just three years ago by a founding team including Vincent Gombault, Ingmar Vallano, and Benoît Verbrugghe—started raising its first fund, Clipway Secondary Fund I, in 2023 with a $4 billion target."
Nizar Tarhuni
- Description: EVP of Research and Market Intelligence at PitchBook
- Why mentioned: Speaking at a Seattle Tech Week podcast event with Madrona on AI narrative and IPO market
- Quote: "EVP of Research and Market Intelligence Nizar Tarhuni and Madrona partner Sabrina Albert will discuss everything from the shifting AI narrative to the state of the IPO market."
Sabrina Albert
- Description: Partner at Madrona Venture Group
- Why mentioned: Co-panelist with Tarhuni for Seattle Tech Week podcast on AI and IPO markets
- Quote: "Madrona partner Sabrina Albert will discuss everything from the shifting AI narrative to the state of the IPO market."
5. Operating Insights
Insight 1: Build Your Product and Revenue Model for Machine Customers, Not Just Human Ones
The emergence of AI agents as buyers means product discoverability and accessibility must now be designed with non-human users in mind — and pricing models need to reflect how machines consume services differently than humans do.
"Companies are adapting by making products discoverable, accessible and usable by agents, and by building revenue models around how machines consume services."
This is a structural product strategy shift, not an incremental feature — especially urgent given that bots already generate more web traffic than humans.
Insight 2: Use AI-Driven Proprietary Sourcing to Compete Against Larger, Better-Resourced Rivals
Clipway's playbook — building a 38,500-company database that screens and underwrites deals before any human reviews them — allowed a three-year-old firm to out-raise Apollo's record debut fund and source two-thirds of deal volume off-market.
"We are quite heavily focused on LP-led secondaries. And the idea of setting up a new company was really to focus on the use of technology to help approach the market — same old-fashioned strategy, but really approaching it in a more modern way."
The lesson for operators and fund managers: technology-enabled proprietary sourcing is now a fundable competitive moat, not just an operational nicety.
Insight 3: Frame AI's Market Size in Three Distinct Layers
For operators and investors trying to quantify AI opportunity, PitchBook offers a practical three-part analytical framework rather than a single TAM number.
"A new PitchBook analyst note posits that its value can be measured in three layers: existing software and labor spending shifting to agents, the costs of running them, and the net new value agents generate."
This decomposition prevents both over- and under-estimating the opportunity and helps operators identify which layer their product plays in.
6. Overlooked Insights
Insight 1: Biotech, Not AI, Is the Top-Performing IPO Sector in 2026
While AI dominates the venture narrative, the article quietly notes that biotech is actually outperforming in the public markets — a signal that could be missed by investors overconcentrating in tech IPO exposure.
"The biotech industry is stealing AI's spotlight in the IPO market, with Bloomberg reporting a weighted average return of 55% for such companies so far in 2026."
Insight 2: FDA Peptide Reclassification Could Unlock a Massive Telehealth Cash Grab
A single regulatory decision — nearing this week — could dramatically reshape the compounding pharmacy and telehealth landscape, yet it receives only a single bullet point in the newsletter.
"The FDA is nearing a decision that could unleash peptide production. Later this week, officials will rule on a reclassification of certain peptides, which could spark a massive cash grab for telehealth companies."