Eli Lilly's $7B hedge against… | PitchBook News Summary

1. Key Themes

Theme 1: GLP-1 Pharma Cash Is Fueling a Biotech M&A Wave

Big pharma companies flush with GLP-1 revenues are aggressively deploying capital into M&A to diversify their portfolios and hedge against an inevitable revenue plateau.

"The obesity wave is creating opportunity and cash flow—and fear about what happens post." — Bryan Roberts, Venrock partner

"Eli Lilly's combined revenue from GLP-1s hit $36.5 billion in 2025—more than half of its total revenue of $65.18 billion. For Novo Nordisk, GLP-1 products including Ozempic and Wegovy accounted for approximately 75% of its total revenue."

"With patent cliffs looming for several of the biggest money-maker drugs that aren't GLP-1s, buyers are getting more aggressive to protect their top-line revenue growth."

Theme 2: Biotech Is in a Hot M&A and IPO Cycle

The convergence of large strategic buyers, a creaking-open IPO window, and rising venture valuations is creating favorable exit conditions for biotech founders and investors alike.

"There have already been more than 20 M&A deals at more than $1 billion in biotech since the start of this year, and the IPO window has been slowly creaking open. Venture growth valuations have skyrocketed, per PitchBook's Q4 2025 Biopharma VC Trends report."

"M&A in 2026 feels pretty hot." — Bryan Roberts, Venrock partner

Theme 3: Digital Infrastructure / Datacenter Funds Are Breaking Records

AI and cloud-driven demand has made digital infrastructure one of the best-performing private capital strategies, triggering a massive surge in specialist fund formation and LP capital allocation.

"Private digital infrastructure funds—those investing in datacenters and telecom infrastructure—raised a record $26 billion in 2025, almost four times their average from 2021 to 2024."

"When accounting for commitments to generalist funds investing in the space alongside other sectors such as renewable energy or transportation infrastructure, total digital infrastructure fundraising reached $157.6 billion in 2025, nearly double the decade-long average."

"[Specialist funds] yielded 8.7% in the 12 months that ended Q2 2025...outperformed all major private capital strategies and the composite private capital universe."

Theme 4: The Software PE Investment Thesis Is Under Threat

The once-dominant software investment thesis in private equity is being destabilized by AI disruption to the SaaS business model, signaling a potential rotation in PE deal flow.

"The swirling uncertainty surrounding the future of the software business model actively threatens its reign as PE's go-to investment of the past decade. The implications of this shift are profound." — Q1 2026 US PE Breakdown

Theme 5: IPO Pipeline Is Reactivating Across Sectors

A broad cross-section of companies — from banks and biotechs to defense tech, fintech, and food chains — are filing or signaling intent to go public, potentially catalyzing PE fundraising.

"Everyone from banks to biotechs is filing for an IPO right now, potentially catalyzing a new wave of PE fundraising."

2. Contrarian Perspectives

The Kelonia Deal May Not Be an Overpay

Conventional wisdom might flag a $7B deal for a company that last raised at a $104M Series A valuation as egregiously expensive. PitchBook's analyst pushes back, arguing the underlying technology justifies a premium.

"It's hard to call [the Kelonia deal] an overpay right now. This technology should (in theory) have more durable expression than some other approaches, so there's a premium there." — Ben Zercher, Senior Biotech Analyst, PitchBook

Supporting data: Kelonia's last round was a Series A in 2022 at a $104 million post-money valuation — making the $3.25B upfront (and up to $7B total) a staggering markup that would normally raise red flags, but the in-vivo CAR-T modality's durability thesis is the differentiator.

AI-Driven Datacenter Demand May Not Be as Durable as Priced

While capital is flooding into digital infrastructure, the article surfaces a meaningful risk that the consensus "AI builds forever" narrative could be wrong — efficiency gains and unproven enterprise ROI create real demand-side risk.

"Uncertainty is growing around the durability of AI-driven demand, as efficiency gains could reduce computing power needs, and enterprise ROI on AI remains unproven, raising the risk of eventual demand shortfalls."

This is a meaningful counterpoint at a time when $157.6B in total digital infrastructure capital was deployed in 2025 alone.

"2 and 20" Is No Longer the SPV Standard

The received wisdom that SPV managers charge 20% carry is contradicted by real transaction data, suggesting LPs have more negotiating power than commonly assumed — and GPs need to benchmark themselves accordingly.

"Only 25% of deals used the traditional 20% carry. Both the average and median carry were lower." — Sydecar analysis of hundreds of SPVs

"SPV managers are adjusting fees and carry to match deal complexity, LP expectations, and the realities of running a lean team."

3. Companies Identified

Company	Description	Why Mentioned	Key Quote
Eli Lilly	Global pharmaceutical giant	Acquired Kelonia for up to $7B as a strategic hedge against GLP-1 revenue concentration	"Eli Lilly, like many of its peers, is using its substantial cash from the GLP-1 boom to diversify beyond the obesity market."
Kelonia	In-vivo CAR-T biotech, incubated by Venrock	Subject of the $3.25B–$7B acquisition; case study in early-stage biotech exits	"A biotech company whose last round was a Series A in 2022 at a $104 million post-money valuation."
Novo Nordisk	Danish pharma giant	Cited as comparable GLP-1 revenue-concentration risk to Lilly	"GLP-1 products including Ozempic and Wegovy accounted for approximately 75% of its total revenue."
Cursor	AI coding startup	Raising $2B at a $50B valuation — signal of continued massive AI coding tool investment	"Cursor, an AI coding startup, is raising a $2 billion round from investors including Andreessen Horowitz and Thrive at a $50 billion valuation."
Recursive Superintelligence	Developer of a self-teaching AI system	$500M raise at $4B valuation led by GV; notable frontier AI bet	"Secured at least $500 million in a round led by GV at a $4 billion valuation."
Polymarket	Prediction market platform	Raising $400M at a $15B valuation; legitimization of prediction markets as an asset class	"In talks to raise $400 million at a $15 billion valuation."
CuspAI	UK-based AI for materials discovery	$200M raise at $2B+ valuation; AI applied to physical sciences	"In talks to secure a $200 million round at a valuation over $2 billion."
Euclyd	Netherlands chip startup	€100M raise; European semiconductor ecosystem building	"Netherlands-based chip startup Euclyd is in talks to raise a €100 million round."
Revolut	London-based digital bank	IPO target in ~2 years per CEO	"CEO Nik Storonsky says the London-based digital bank plans to go public in two years."
Jersey Mike's Subs	Blackstone-backed sandwich chain	Confidential IPO filing; consumer/PE exit signal	"Blackstone-backed sandwich chain Jersey Mike's Subs confidentially submitted a draft filing for an IPO."
Odyssey Therapeutics	Boston-based biotech backed by SR One	Filed for IPO; biotech IPO window opening	Filed for an IPO.
Varjo Technologies	Nvidia-backed Finnish XR/VR company	Considering Helsinki IPO; defense tech angle	"Nvidia-backed Varjo Technologies are both considering Helsinki IPOs."
Blue Owl Capital	Alternative asset manager	Acquiring Sila Realty Trust for $2.4B	"Blue Owl Capital agreed to acquire NYSE-listed Sila Realty Trust in a $2.4 billion deal."
Rivan	London-based synthetic fuel producer	£25M raise; emerging green fuels space	"Rivan, a London-based synthetic fuel producer, received £25 million in a round led by IQ Capital."

4. People Identified

Person	Description	Why Mentioned	Key Quote
Bryan Roberts	Partner, Venrock	Led Venrock's investment in Kelonia; provided market color on 2026 M&A activity	"M&A in 2026 feels pretty hot. The obesity wave is creating opportunity and cash flow—and fear about what happens post."
Ben Zercher	Senior Biotech Analyst, PitchBook	Provided valuation analysis on the Kelonia deal	"It's hard to call [the Kelonia deal] an overpay right now. This technology should (in theory) have more durable expression than some other approaches."
Nik Storonsky	CEO, Revolut	Signaled IPO timeline of ~2 years for Revolut	"CEO Nik Storonsky says the London-based digital bank plans to go public in two years."
Kevin Warsh	Ex-VC investor, Fed Chair nominee	Senate hearing for potential Fed Chair confirmation; noted as Silicon Valley-adjacent	"If he's confirmed as the next Fed chair, it would be the closest the office has ever come to Silicon Valley."
John Ternus	Apple's anticipated next CEO	Identified as Apple's most influential internal leader ahead of a CEO transition	"The company's next leader is already one of its most influential people."
Anikka Villegas	Senior Analyst, Fund Strategies & Sustainable Investing, PitchBook	Authored the digital infrastructure fundraising analysis	Authored the digital infrastructure analyst note.
Rosie Bradbury	Senior VC Reporter, PitchBook	Authored the Eli Lilly / Kelonia story	Bylined author of the lead article.

5. Operating Insights

In-Vivo / Next-Gen CAR-T Is Where Biotech Premium Exits Are Being Made

For biotech founders and VC operators: the Kelonia deal demonstrates that novel delivery modalities — specifically in-vivo CAR-T — command outsized acquisition premiums because of perceived durability advantages over earlier-generation cell therapies. Building defensibility around mechanism of action, not just indication, is a key value driver.

"This technology should (in theory) have more durable expression than some other approaches, so there's a premium there." — Ben Zercher, PitchBook

SPV Operators Should Benchmark and Restructure Carry to Win LPs

With data showing only 25% of SPVs use traditional 20% carry, operators pricing their vehicles at the old standard risk being uncompetitive — particularly in later-stage and secondary deals where divergence from standard terms is most pronounced.

"SPV managers are adjusting fees and carry to match deal complexity, LP expectations, and the realities of running a lean team. Management fees are more common in later-stage deals... Secondary SPVs show the most divergence from standard terms."

Specialist Infrastructure GPs Need Larger Funds to Stay Competitive

The structural reality of datacenter deal sizes means that generalist infrastructure GPs are being squeezed out. Scale is becoming a prerequisite for deal access, not just a growth aspiration.

"Specialist fund sizes have shot upward. This is a positive outcome for specialist GPs, which need larger and larger pools of capital to write the checks needed to win multibillion-dollar datacenter deals."

6. Overlooked Insights

South Korea's Private Markets Are Hitting a Structural Reset

Briefly mentioned in "Catch Up Quick" but potentially significant for investors with Asia-Pacific exposure: South Korea is experiencing a simultaneous VC slowdown and PE consolidation — a rare dual-market compression that could create either distressed buying opportunities or signal broader EM private markets stress.

"South Korea's private markets face a structural reset as VC slows and PE consolidates."

The 2021 PE Vintage Has Barely Returned Capital (0.06x DPI)

The Daily Benchmark data shows 2021 vintage global PE funds have a median DPI of just 0.06x — meaning LPs have received almost none of their capital back. With the IPO window now reopening, distribution pressure on 2021-era managers is building and could accelerate exit activity across the board — creating both supply in secondaries markets and urgency for IPO/M&A processes.

"Median DPI: 0.06x" — 2021 Vintage Global PE Funds Benchmark