Data Insight: Most of the world’s fastest-growing megacities will soon be in Africa
1. Key Themes
Africa and South Asia Are the New Frontiers of Urban Growth
The center of gravity for megacity expansion is decisively shifting away from East Asia and Latin America toward Africa and South Asia.
"Only 24 of today's 100 largest cities are projected to still be growing by 2100; of those, 12 are in Africa, and 5 are in South Asia."
Legacy Megacities Are Peaking
Cities that drove the last era of urbanization are approaching demographic ceilings, signaling a structural shift in where urban investment opportunities will concentrate.
"São Paulo is near its population peak, and Shanghai is projected to peak around 2050."
2. Contrarian Perspectives
Luanda, Angola deserves far more investor and policy attention than it receives. Despite being largely off the radar of global investors and urban planners, Luanda is on a trajectory to surpass two of the world's most iconic megacities within the century.
"Luanda, the capital of Angola, is an interesting case. It gets much less attention than well-established megacities, but as the chart shows, it's on track to overtake São Paulo in about 20 years and Shanghai in about 60."
The next wave of urbanization is not a continuation of the last one — it's a geographic reset. Conventional investment frameworks built around established Asian or Latin American urban growth stories may be increasingly misaligned with where the actual demographic momentum lies.
"Many cities across East Asia and Latin America have grown quickly over the last few decades... This rapid growth is now ending."
3. Companies Identified
No specific companies are mentioned in this article.
4. People Identified
Esteban Ortiz-Ospina Researcher/author at Our World in Data. Credited as the author of this data insight on global megacity growth trends.
"By Esteban Ortiz-Ospina"
European Commission's Joint Research Centre Research body whose dataset underpins the projections cited in the article.
"In this dataset from the European Commission's Joint Research Centre, only 24 of today's 100 largest cities are projected to still be growing by 2100."
5. Operating Insights
Site selection, infrastructure investment, and market entry strategies should be recalibrated toward African cities now, ahead of the demographic curve. The data suggests a multi-decade runway for growth in cities like Luanda, Dar es Salaam, and Addis Ababa — markets where early positioning compounds significantly.
"The fastest-growing megacities are now emerging elsewhere... Dar es Salaam, Addis Ababa, and Luanda in Africa."
Treat long-range demographic projections as directional signals, not precise forecasts. The article cautions against over-indexing on specific numbers while still affirming their strategic utility.
"These rely on projections — often many decades ahead — and those come with a lot of uncertainty. Nonetheless, they provide a useful perspective on what the future of cities across the world might look like."
6. Overlooked Insights
The sheer scale of historical Asian urbanization is easy to underestimate — and sets the baseline for how dramatic Africa's coming growth could be. Shanghai grew nearly tenfold since 1950 and is still considered a peaking city. African cities starting their steep ascent now could follow similarly dramatic trajectories.
"Since 1950, São Paulo's population has grown sixfold. Shanghai's nearly tenfold."
Karachi is the lone South Asian city explicitly named alongside African cities as a current fast-grower, suggesting South Asia's urban momentum, while smaller in share than Africa's, warrants parallel attention from investors focused on the region.
"In the chart, you can see various examples: Karachi in South Asia, and Dar es Salaam, Addis Ababa, and Luanda in Africa."