Kalshi Looks to Almost Double Its…

1. Key Themes

Prediction Markets Are Experiencing Hypergrowth Valuations

Kalshi is reportedly seeking to raise at a $40 billion valuation just one month after closing a $1 billion round at a $22 billion valuation — nearly doubling in 30 days. The catalyst appears to be surging trading volume and category expansion.

"Kalshi is reportedly in talks to raise new funding at a roughly $40 billion valuation just a month after raising $1 billion at $22 billion, based presumably on the prediction market's surging trading volume and its expansion into sports, crypto, and financial-event contracts."

AI Infrastructure Independence Is a Strategic Priority

OpenAI is building its own silicon to reduce dependence on Nvidia, a move that signals the largest AI labs are vertically integrating at the chip layer. Simultaneously, Nvidia-alternative chip companies are raising at dramatically higher valuations.

"OpenAI unveiled Jalapeño, its first custom inference chip, built with Broadcom and designed to lower the cost of running its AI models, as the company doubles down on its own infrastructure to reduce its dependence on Nvidia GPUs." "SambaNova Systems...is reportedly set to raise $800 million to $1 billion at an approximately $10 billion valuation, up from $2 billion in February."

AI Agents Are the Dominant Application Layer Investment Theme

Across virtually every sector — healthcare, legal, finance, marketing, DevOps — the funding round descriptions center on AI agents automating high-stakes workflows. This is no longer speculative; it is the consensus deployment pattern attracting institutional capital.

"Assort Health...automates patient access workflows for healthcare providers by handling calls, scheduling, intake, referrals, and payments across clinics and health systems." "Taktile...helps banks and insurers automate high-stakes decisions such as underwriting, claims, and fraud reviews with AI agents." "Runlayer...provides a control layer for companies to govern employee use of AI agents and monitor what those agents access."

Healthcare AI Is Attracting Massive, Multi-Institutional Capital

Multiple large healthcare AI rounds closed in a single day, spanning patient access, chronic disease management, and medical record structuring. Notably, health systems themselves (Corewell, Memorial Hermann, Duke Health) are co-investing alongside traditional VCs — a sign of enterprise pull.

"Cadence...monitors patients with chronic diseases at home and helps health systems adjust treatment and medications between visits using supervised AI agents, raised a $100 million Series C round led by Spark Capital, with Thrive Capital, General Catalyst, Coatue, B Capital, Corewell Health Ventures, Memorial Hermann, and Duke Health also pitching in." "Alan...raised a $545.2 million round led by Prosus at a $6.2 billion post-money valuation."

The AI Talent War Is Structurally Disadvantaging Google/DeepMind

A sustained pattern of senior researchers exiting Google DeepMind for competitors — particularly Anthropic — is emerging, with named departures now spanning multiple waves. This is a structural competitive risk, not a one-off.

"Top AI researchers Jonas Adler and Alexander Pritzel are leaving Google for Anthropic after helping develop Gemini, extending a run of high-profile exits that also includes Noam Shazeer's move to OpenAI and DeepMind director John Jumper's departure for Anthropic."

2. Contrarian Perspectives

The Best AI Investment Returns Haven't Happened Yet

Against the prevailing narrative that early AI infrastructure plays have already captured most of the value, M13's Carter Reum and Basis Set Ventures' Chang Xu argue the opposite — the second and third-order effects are where the real money will be made, and they will be harder to identify.

"They made the case that the most interesting AI bets are still ahead and that the second and third ripple effects of this technology cycle will be harder to spot but far more rewarding."

LFP Batteries — Once Dismissed as Chinese-Only — Are Now Viable for U.S. EV Startups

The conventional wisdom was that U.S. automakers had to use NMC chemistry because LFP supply chains were too China-dependent. Slate's decision to switch to LFP — achieving longer range at a $24,950 price point — suggests the cost advantage has become too large to ignore, even with supply chain concentration risk.

"Battery packs that use LFP are less energy dense but cheaper by about 40%, thanks in part to lower-cost ingredients like iron...More recently, automakers have begun to use another chemistry, lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP)." "When the startup revealed its starting price on Wednesday — $24,950 before destination, taxes, and other fees — it also said it had changed its battery strategy, eliminating the optional 240-mile pack but bumping the standard pack from 150 miles to 205."

AI Models Marketed as "Conservative" Still Skew Liberal

Even products explicitly positioned for right-leaning audiences failed to produce ideologically consistent outputs in Washington Post testing — undermining the premise that politically differentiated AI is technically achievable today.

"Most skewed to the liberal side of the spectrum, with OpenAI's GPT-5.5 giving left-leaning-only answers 80% of the time and even conservative-marketed models such as Grok and Gab's Arya embracing liberal positions."

3. Companies Identified

Kalshi | Prediction markets platform | Lead story; valuation nearly doubled in one month to $40B on surging volume and category expansion into sports, crypto, and financial events | "Reportedly in talks to raise new funding at a roughly $40 billion valuation just a month after raising $1 billion at $22 billion."

Slate Auto | EV startup making stripped-down pickup truck | Case study in EV cost strategy; switched from NMC to LFP battery chemistry to hit $24,950 price point with improved range | "Eliminating the optional 240-mile pack but bumping the standard pack from 150 miles to 205."

OpenAI | AI lab | Unveiled first custom inference chip (Jalapeño) built with Broadcom to reduce Nvidia GPU dependency | "Doubles down on its own infrastructure to reduce its dependence on Nvidia GPUs."

SambaNova Systems | AI chip and server startup, Palo Alto | Nvidia alternative raising $800M–$1B at ~$10B valuation, up 5x from $2B in February | "Reportedly set to raise $800 million to $1 billion at an approximately $10 billion valuation, up from $2 billion in February."

Alan | European digital health insurer, Paris | $545M raise at $6.2B valuation; offers AI-powered patient support via app to corporate customers | "Sells health insurance to corporate customers and offers virtual care and AI-powered patient support through its app."

Assort Health | Healthcare AI, San Francisco | $120M Series C at $1.2B valuation; automates patient access across calls, scheduling, intake, referrals, and payments | "Raised a $120 million Series C round at a $1.2 billion valuation."

Cadence | Chronic disease management AI, New York | $100M Series C; uses supervised AI agents to adjust treatment between visits; backed by health systems as co-investors | "Monitors patients with chronic diseases at home and helps health systems adjust treatment and medications between visits using supervised AI agents."

HyperLight | Photonics chip startup, Cambridge MA | $80M Series C; improves data transmission speed and reduces power in AI data center optical interconnects | "Builds photonics chips that improve data transmission speed and reduce power use in optical interconnects for AI data centers."

Ollin Biosciences | Ophthalmology biotech, Austin | $330M Series B for antibody drugs targeting macular degeneration and diabetic macular edema | "Develops antibody drugs for eye diseases such as macular degeneration and diabetic macular edema."

Taktile | Financial AI decision platform, NY/Berlin | $110M Series C; automates underwriting, claims, and fraud decisions for banks and insurers; Goldman Sachs Alternatives led | "Helps banks and insurers automate high-stakes decisions such as underwriting, claims, and fraud reviews with AI agents."

Runlayer | AI governance platform, New York | $30M Series A (Felicis/Khosla); provides enterprise control layer to monitor and govern employee AI agent use | "Provides a control layer for companies to govern employee use of AI agents and monitor what those agents access."

Runpod | Cloud GPU rental, Mt. Laurel NJ | $100M at $1B valuation; rents compute to AI developers for training, fine-tuning, and inference | "Rents cloud computing power to AI developers for experimenting, training, fine-tuning, and running models."

Caplight Technologies | Private market data/secondary marketplace, SF | $16M Series A co-led by BlackRock; connects investors to trade venture stakes | "Runs a marketplace connecting investors and broker-dealers to trade venture stakes and access secondary market liquidity."

Agility Robotics | Humanoid robot maker, Salem OR | Going public via SPAC at $2.5B pre-money value; maker of Digit robots for manufacturing and logistics | "Going public via a merger with Churchill Capital Corp XI at a $2.5 billion pre-money equity value."

Qualcomm / Modular | Chip giant acquires AI chip software startup | Qualcomm acquiring Modular for ~$4B; Modular makes platform for running AI software across different chips | "Qualcomm has confirmed it will acquire Modular...for nearly $4 billion."

Superhuman / GPTZero | Email productivity acquires AI detection | Superhuman acquired GPTZero (19M users, $30M ARR); signals AI content authentication becoming a mainstream enterprise need | "GPTZero grew to more than 19 million registered users and $30 million in annual recurring revenue."

Onyx Odds | Sports prediction marketplace, New York | $20M at $220M valuation; led by Kraken parent Payward — crypto infrastructure backing sports prediction | "Operates a sports prediction marketplace where users trade exchange-based contracts tied to game outcomes."

Allium | Blockchain data infrastructure, New York | $40M Series B; standardizes onchain data for banks, fintechs, and government agencies | "Aggregates and standardizes blockchain transaction data for banks, fintechs, and government agencies."

Valor Equity Partners | Chicago investment firm | Raising $2.5B+ for Fund VII; significant allocation earmarked for further SpaceX investment | "Part of the capital already earmarked for further investments in SpaceX."

4. People Identified

Dario Amodei | CEO, Anthropic | Mentioned as having been replaced in White House meetings — a notable political/diplomatic maneuver | "Following the replacement of CEO Dario Amodei in meetings by co-founder Tom Brown and policy chief Sarah Heck."

Tom Brown | Co-founder, Anthropic | Stepped in to lead White House negotiations on Claude model release; approach appears to be succeeding | "The Trump White House has reportedly warmed to Anthropic in negotiations over re-releasing Claude Fable 5 following the replacement of CEO Dario Amodei in meetings by co-founder Tom Brown."

Sarah Heck | Policy Chief, Anthropic | Co-leads White House engagement alongside Tom Brown | "Replacement of CEO Dario Amodei in meetings by co-founder Tom Brown and policy chief Sarah Heck."

Jonas Adler | AI Researcher, departing Google for Anthropic | Former Gemini contributor; part of an accelerating pattern of DeepMind talent exodus | "Top AI researchers Jonas Adler and Alexander Pritzel are leaving Google for Anthropic after helping develop Gemini."

Alexander Pritzel | AI Researcher, departing Google for Anthropic | Same cohort as Adler; further evidence of structural talent drain from Google | "Top AI researchers Jonas Adler and Alexander Pritzel are leaving Google for Anthropic after helping develop Gemini."

Noam Shazeer | AI Researcher | Moved to OpenAI; cited as part of the same wave of Google departures | "Extending a run of high-profile exits that also includes Noam Shazeer's move to OpenAI."

John Jumper | Former DeepMind Director | Departed for Anthropic; Nobel-level researcher (AlphaFold); pattern continues | "DeepMind director John Jumper's departure for Anthropic."

Carter Reum | Co-founder, M13 | Argued at StrictlyVC LA event that the most valuable AI investment opportunities are still ahead | "Made the case that the most interesting AI bets are still ahead and that the second and third ripple effects of this technology cycle will be harder to spot but far more rewarding."

Chang Xu | Partner, Basis Set Ventures | Co-presented with Reum at StrictlyVC LA; same thesis on second/third-order AI value creation | "The second and third ripple effects of this technology cycle will be harder to spot but far more rewarding."

5. Operating Insights

AI Model Governance Is Becoming a Line-Item Enterprise Budget

The emergence of companies like Runlayer (AI governance) and Coval (agent testing and simulation) — both raising meaningful rounds — signals that enterprises are moving past "deploy AI agents" to "control and audit AI agents." Operators building AI-enabled products should budget for observability and governance infrastructure from the start.

"Runlayer...provides a control layer for companies to govern employee use of AI agents and monitor what those agents access, raised a $30 million Series A." "Coval...runs simulations, monitors performance, and labels data to help enterprises test and improve voice and chat agents before and after deployment."

Diplomatic Personnel Substitution Can Unblock Enterprise/Government Deals

Anthropic's tactic of swapping its CEO out of sensitive White House negotiations — replacing him with a co-founder and policy chief — directly improved its regulatory position. For founders in regulated industries, who sits across the table matters as much as what is said.

"The Trump White House has reportedly warmed to Anthropic in negotiations over re-releasing Claude Fable 5 following the replacement of CEO Dario Amodei in meetings by co-founder Tom Brown and policy chief Sarah Heck — though officials are still seeking assurances that the model's guardrails can't be bypassed."

Manufacturing Simplicity as a Competitive Moat in Hardware

Slate's battery swap was driven not just by cost but by supply chain simplification — removing a second battery SKU reduces manufacturing complexity dramatically. The insight generalizes: stripping product optionality in hardware can simultaneously lower cost and increase reliability.

"Slate, maker of the stripped-down EV pickup truck, found another way to simplify its product: the battery...eliminating the optional 240-mile pack but bumping the standard pack from 150 miles to 205."

6. Overlooked Insights

Ecommerce Brands Now Need an "AI Search Optimization" Strategy

Nudge, a pre-seed company, is building tooling specifically to help brands track and improve their visibility inside AI shopping recommendations — a nascent but potentially large category analogous to SEO, but for LLM-driven commerce. This has no coverage yet and sits at the intersection of AI agents and retail.

"Nudge...aims to help ecommerce brands track how often their products appear in AI shopping recommendations, improve product data for AI agents, raised a $1.1 million pre-seed round."

Compact Fusion Is Being Commercialized Through Medical Isotope Production

Astral Systems is building small fusion reactors not for power generation — the typical fusion narrative — but specifically to produce medical isotopes for cancer imaging and targeted therapies. This is a pragmatic near-term revenue path for fusion technology that largely flies under mainstream investor radar.

"Astral Systems...builds compact fusion reactors that produce medical isotopes for hospitals to use in cancer imaging and targeted therapies, raised a $30.3 million round."