The VC hubs of the World Cup stage | PitchBook News Summary

1. Key Themes

Theme 1: Power Grid Infrastructure as a Durable AI Investment Play

VC capital is flowing into power grid technology not just for climate reasons, but as a direct enabler of AI infrastructure. The recovery is being driven by larger checks rather than more deals.

"Deal activity from the last two quarters reflects investors' growing consideration of power grid technologies as a tool to support both data center and renewable energy growth."

"The recovery has been driven more by larger deal sizes than by deal volume... median deal values more than doubled, from $3.8 million to $8.3 million, climbing further to $11.4 million by mid-2026."

"Grid tech investment should remain intact despite policy uncertainty, driven by energy demand growth and the fact that intermittent renewables are among the lowest-cost and fastest-growing energy sources."

Theme 2: Ukraine's Defense Tech — A Massive Capability Gap Awaiting Capital

Ukraine has built a combat-proven defense industrial complex that dramatically outstrips available venture funding, creating a potential asymmetric investment opportunity.

"Equity investment in Ukrainian defense tech reached just $57.2 million across 28 deals in 2025... a tiny sum beside the country's reported $35 billion in defense production capacity."

"Ukraine's defense tech sector can produce far more than the domestic market can currently buy, which makes foreign customers, export channels and international production partnerships critical to its growth."

"The strongest categories are those where combat use creates a durable edge: autonomy software, secure communications, battlefield surveillance and communications systems, counter-drone technology, ground robotics and navigation that can withstand electronic warfare."

Theme 3: European VCs Doubling Down on Experienced Founders

Europe's VC market is explicitly rewarding founder experience with materially larger checks — a structural shift in how capital is being allocated.

"Europe's repeat entrepreneurs are now securing deal sizes 72% larger than the first-timers, and VCs are explicitly building funds around the thesis that experience generates returns."

Theme 4: PE GP Commitment Financing — An Emerging Alignment Risk

Smaller PE firms are borrowing to meet their own fund commitment obligations, raising structural questions about whether LP and GP interests are truly aligned.

"Smaller PE firms are increasingly borrowing to meet their own GP commitment requirements, raising questions about true alignment with LPs."

2. Contrarian Perspectives

Perspective 1: Ukraine's Defense Tech Is a Viable Investment Market — Not Just a Wartime Story

The consensus view may be that Ukraine's defense sector is too risky or too geopolitically uncertain for private capital. The data suggests the opposite: it is an industrially mature market with proven battlefield validation and nascent exit pathways.

"Ukraine has built one of the world's most combat-tested defense technology markets, but venture capital has largely ignored it."

"That gap matters because Ukraine's defense industrial base is no longer just a wartime improvisation story. The Kyiv School of Economics estimates defense tech's funded market size at about $6.8 billion in 2025, while production capacity stood near $35 billion and could rise toward $55 billion in 2026."

Swarmer's Nasdaq listing and Axon Enterprise's backing of Buntar and Farsight Vision signals that exits and strategic interest are beginning to emerge — meaning the risk/reward window may be closing for early movers.

Perspective 2: Grid Tech Is Defensible Even in a Policy-Hostile Environment

Against a backdrop of climate policy uncertainty and rollbacks of green energy subsidies in some jurisdictions, the consensus might be to reduce exposure to climate infrastructure. The article argues grid tech is structurally different and more defensible.

"Grid tech investment should remain intact despite policy uncertainty, driven by energy demand growth and the fact that intermittent renewables are among the lowest-cost and fastest-growing energy sources. This gives the sector a degree of defensibility not shared by some adjacent climate tech segments."

Perspective 3: Cambridge Out-Innovates Boston — But Capital Scarcity Turns Innovation Into Discount Acquisitions

Despite world-leading research output, Cambridge's chronic underinvestment means its best companies are being acquired by American VCs at deep discounts — a value-transfer problem that represents opportunity for those willing to invest locally.

"Britain's Cambridge out-innovates Boston on patents and research, but a chronic capital drought means American VCs are picking up its best companies at an 80% discount."

3. Companies Identified

Base Power

Description: Texas-based energy storage company
Why mentioned: Raised a landmark $1 billion round, cited as evidence of accelerating mega-deal activity in power grid tech
Quote: "Eight deals of $100 million or more in 2025, including a $1 billion raise by Texas-based Base Power"

Firmus Technologies

Description: Australian power grid/energy technology company
Why mentioned: Raised a $541 million round, one of the largest in the power grid tech sector in 2025
Quote: "A $541 million round by Firmus Technologies in Australia"

Swarmer

Description: Ukrainian defense tech company focused on drone/autonomy technology
Why mentioned: Achieved the sector's first disclosed exit via a Nasdaq listing in March, a critical market signal for Ukraine defense tech
Quote: "Swarmer's March listing on the Nasdaq gave the sector its first disclosed exit."

Axon Enterprise

Description: U.S.-based public safety and defense technology company
Why mentioned: Strategic investor backing Ukrainian defense tech firms, signaling that large strategic buyers are beginning to build exposure
Quote: "Axon Enterprise has backed Buntar and Farsight Vision, suggesting strategic buyers are starting to build exposure."

Buntar

Description: Ukrainian defense tech company
Why mentioned: Backed by Axon Enterprise as a strategic investor, part of the emerging international validation of Ukraine's defense ecosystem
Quote: "Axon Enterprise has backed Buntar and Farsight Vision"

Farsight Vision

Description: Ukrainian defense tech company (likely focused on surveillance/optics)
Why mentioned: Backed by Axon Enterprise alongside Buntar
Quote: "Axon Enterprise has backed Buntar and Farsight Vision, suggesting strategic buyers are starting to build exposure."

GeoSurge

Description: London-based startup helping brands manage their representation in generative AI systems
Why mentioned: Recent seed deal — notable as an early-stage company operating in the emerging field of AI brand visibility management
Quote: "GeoSurge, a London-based company helping brands manage their representation in generative AI systems, raised a €10 million seed round led by AlbionVC."

IQM Quantum Computers

Description: Finnish quantum computing startup
Why mentioned: Dual-listed on the Helsinki Stock Exchange and Nasdaq, raising €127 million in PIPE financing — a notable deeptech exit
Quote: "IQM Quantum Computers, a Finnish quantum computing startup, has gone public both on the Helsinki Stock Exchange and Nasdaq in the US, raising €127 million in PIPE financing."

Gymshark

Description: London-based sportswear brand
Why mentioned: Founder buyback of PE stake from General Atlantic — an interesting founder-control recapture story
Quote: "Gymshark founder and CEO Ben Francis is in talks with General Atlantic to buy back a portion of the US PE firm's 21% stake."

Climentum Capital

Description: Copenhagen-based climate VC fund
Why mentioned: Held a €60 million first close on Fund II targeting climate deep tech across Northern and Central Europe
Quote: "Copenhagen-based climate VC Climentum Capital held a €60 million first close of its second fund against a €100 million target."

SAP

Description: Germany-based enterprise software company
Why mentioned: Cited for its approach to AI-driven workforce transformation — encouraging at-risk employees to reinvent their roles — while also raising concerns about dependency on American-developed AI
Quote: "SAP wants workers who could be replaced by AI to make their case, encouraging them to invent new jobs aided by the technology. Yet, the Germany-based company's reliance on American-developed AI poses a new concern."

4. People Identified

John MacDonagh

Description: Senior Emerging Technology Analyst at PitchBook
Why mentioned: Author of the power grid technology investment analysis
Quote: "Power grid technology is the unglamorous bottleneck of the AI boom, and investors are finally waking up to it."

Ali Javaheri

Description: Senior Research Analyst at PitchBook
Why mentioned: Author of the Ukraine defense tech analysis
Quote: "Ukraine has built one of the world's most combat-tested defense technology markets, but venture capital has largely ignored it."

Ben Francis

Description: Founder and CEO of Gymshark
Why mentioned: In talks to buy back General Atlantic's 21% stake in Gymshark — a notable founder-led recapitalization move
Quote: "Gymshark founder and CEO Ben Francis is in talks with General Atlantic to buy back a portion of the US PE firm's 21% stake."

Thomas Tuchel

Description: Head coach of England's national football team
Why mentioned: Colorful sidebar on the physical toll of the 2026 World Cup heat on players, contextualizing the broader host city/VC ecosystem story
Quote: "'I will be very surprised if we do not suffer,' Thomas Tuchel, the head coach of England's World Cup team, said about playing in this year's tournament in North America."

5. Operating Insights

Insight 1: Non-Lithium Energy Storage Is the Highest-Conviction Sub-Sector Bet Within Grid Tech

The article points to a specific sub-category within energy storage as the most attractive emerging opportunity — non-lithium technologies approaching commercialization in the long-duration niche.

"Within the segment, non-lithium technologies are attracting increasing investor attention as they approach commercialization and fill the long-duration niche that tends to be less economical for lithium technologies."

Takeaway for operators and investors: Focus on long-duration storage solutions using non-lithium chemistries (e.g., iron-air, flow batteries, compressed air). This is where the next wave of mega-deals is likely to form.

Insight 2: Combat-Proven Technology Creates a Defensible Moat Competitors Cannot Replicate in a Lab

Ukraine's defense tech advantage is rooted in real-world battlefield validation — a form of product-market fit that is uniquely difficult to replicate.

"The strongest categories are those where combat use creates a durable edge: autonomy software, secure communications, battlefield surveillance and communications systems, counter-drone technology, ground robotics and navigation that can withstand electronic warfare."

"Interceptor drones have proven to be effective, reportedly accounting for more than 70% of Iranian-built Shahed drone kills over Kyiv. Ukrainian Sting interceptors cost around $2,500 per unit, compared with roughly $4 million for a Patriot PAC-3."

Takeaway: For defense tech investors and operators, battlefield deployment data is the ultimate product validation signal — and Ukraine offers cost-performance ratios that no Western incumbent can easily match.

6. Overlooked Insights

Insight 1: Ukraine's Ground Robotics Sector Is Scaling Exponentially — and Flying Under the Radar

While drone technology gets most of the attention in coverage of Ukraine's defense sector, ground robotics is scaling at a pace that suggests it could be the next major procurement category.

"Ground robots are also scaling quickly, with reported deliveries rising from about 2,000 in 2024 to 15,000 in 2025, with 25,000 procured in the first half of 2026."

This 7.5x increase in deliveries over 18 months, with momentum accelerating, points to a sub-sector that may be under-indexed by both VC and media relative to its actual traction.

Insight 2: Nigeria Is Standing Up a Government-Anchored VC Fund-of-Funds — A Potential Model for African Institutional Capital Formation

Quietly buried in the fundraising section, Nigeria's Bank of Industry is deploying a structured fund-of-funds model to seed venture and micro-VC activity in Nigeria's tech and creative sectors — with government as the anchor LP.

"Nigeria's Bank of Industry appointed Kuramo Capital Management as fund manager of the DICE Fund of Funds, targeting a minimum capitalization of $170.6 million, with an $85.3 million government anchor commitment and Kuramo tasked with raising matching private capital. The fund will deploy through venture and micro-VC funds in Nigeria's tech and creative sectors."

This government-anchored, private capital-matching structure could serve as a replicable model for other African markets attempting to build domestic VC ecosystems.