Edition #18: 50 New Funds, Top 50 VC…

1. Key Themes

Theme 1: Liquidity, DPI, and portfolio management are now the LP selection criteria

LPs are worried about deployment pace, at both mega funds and emerging VCs

Pavel's dinner-season notes lead with deployment speed as an LP concern across fund sizes, with mega funds insulated by brand.

"LPs are genuinely concerned about how quickly funds are deploying capital and this applies to both large funds in their portfolios and emerging VCs. the only difference is that mega funds have hot logos that allow them to…"

Every top GP is back in market, so differentiation comes down to DPI, concentration and portfolio management

"Every top GP is back in market, and LPs now pick on DPI, concentration and portfolio management"

An LP quote from the same thread shows how sharply LPs distinguish GP postures:

"we see a huge difference btw the posture of the GPs who do public + private and those that just do VC/Growth. They are living in different…"

Endowments that backed venture had an outsized year

"A huge year for university endowments that backed VC. Especially, SpaceX. Per @WSJ 'Harvard on Thursday reported a 27.1% gain by its endowment for the fiscal year ended June 30, swelling the endowment's coffers to almost $68 billion.'"

Theme 2: AI M&A is creating one of the hottest liquidity markets ever

~$200B of AI startup exits via M&A in 18 months

"The last 18mos has seen an insane nearly ~$200B of AI startup exits via M&A. The median age is 4yrs old. It is absolutely possible to return a multibillion dollar venture fund with phenomenal IRR, even if you aren't in big AI! This is one of the hottest liquidity markets ever."

Top AI value creation is concentrated at a16z

"The Strebulaev-Jackson AI Venture Ranking of the top 50 VC firms is now live. Andreessen Horowitz tops the AI ranking with 22,509 points, about 1.6 times the score of Lightspeed Venture Partners."

Theme 3: Consensus and pricing pressure are moving down-market, and the emerging manager path is lengthening

Consensus has reached seed, with AI deals priced 30-50%+ higher

"Consensus has reached seed, and AI deals now price 30-50%+ higher" (Samir Kaji, Allocate)

Fund I to Fund II now takes 4 years, up 50% since 2018

"Getting from Fund I to Fund II now takes 4 years, up 50% since 2018" (Hamza Shad, Carta)

Valuation correction warnings sit alongside the boom

Lightspeed's Nnamdi Iregbulem has a longread titled "Valuations Need a Correction," and Pavel's own thread flags "pricing discipline" as a dinner-season theme ("From VC/LP dinner season: deployment pace, overengineered funds, and pricing discipline").

Theme 4: Elite fund sizes are growing, with a few holdouts

USV just closed $900M, its largest fund cycle in 20 years

"just closed $900M, the firm's largest fund cycle after 20 years of keeping funds small on purpose... why Series A checks now run $10M-30M, why 33-50% of their seeds may be proprietary bets or incubations, why USV doesn't need $1T outcomes to return the fund, and why ARR can hide weak retention."

Solo GP at scale

"Oren Zeev of Zeev Ventures runs $2.7B across 11 funds as a solo GP with no partners, associates or investment committee"

2. Contrarian Perspectives

Emerging managers back more outlier founders than megafunds

Conventional wisdom says mega funds have the access and pedigree to find outliers; the data cited says the opposite.

"EMs back 2x more outlier profiles than megafunds as a share of deals" (Dan Gray, Odin)

Bigger portfolios improve the median outcome at little cost to upside

This cuts against the concentrated, high-conviction orthodoxy.

"Bigger portfolios lift the median fund from 1.57x to 2.07x at little cost to upside" (Steve Kim, Verdis Investment Management)

Investment committees miss outliers, and DPI-chasing isn't required

Zeev's approach rejects process orthodoxy: no committee, no LP slides, and no DPI chasing.

"committees miss outliers because omission costs more than commission, and how he raised 11 funds without a single LP slide, invests across funds and never chased DPI, even when it cost him LPs."

You can return a venture fund without being in "big AI"

"It is absolutely possible to return a multibillion dollar venture fund with phenomenal IRR, even if you aren't in big AI!"

Large-scale growth equity at 2 and 20 erodes alpha

Carnegie Mellon's CIO argues early-stage venture keeps its moat while scaled growth equity does not.

"what 2 and 20 on large-scale growth equity does to the alpha, how GP commitment separates conviction from a free call option, and where true early-stage venture still keeps its moat."

3. Companies Identified

Ribbit Capital

Description: Fintech-focused VC firm founded in 2012 by Micky Malka
Why mentioned: Featured in the "Iconic Fund Breakdown" of Funds I-IV (2012-2017)
Quote: "look at @RibbitCapital (Funds I-IV, 2012–2017) @mickymalka grew up in Venezuela during hyperinflation, built and sold a brokerage and a bank, and in 2012 launched one of the first fintech-only VC funds."

Coinbase

Description: Crypto exchange
Why mentioned: Ribbit's Series A investment in 2013, and a USV portfolio company
Quote: "some of the companies he backed: @coinbase (Series A in 2013, Nasdaq…"

Andreessen Horowitz (a16z)

Description: Top-ranked VC firm for AI value creation
Why mentioned: #1 on the Strebulaev-Jackson AI Venture Ranking
Quote: "Andreessen Horowitz tops the AI ranking with 22,509 points, about 1.6 times the score of Lightspeed Venture Partners."

Lightspeed Venture Partners

Description: VC firm ranked #2 in the AI ranking; author Nnamdi Iregbulem is from Lightspeed
Why mentioned: AI ranking runner-up, and source of the valuation-correction longread
Quote: "about 1.6 times the score of Lightspeed Venture Partners."

Union Square Ventures (USV)

Description: NYC-based VC, early backer of Twitter, Coinbase, Stripe and Duolingo
Why mentioned: Closed $900M after 20 years of keeping funds deliberately small
Quote: "just closed $900M, the firm's largest fund cycle after 20 years of keeping funds small on purpose."

Zeev Ventures

Description: Solo-GP venture platform run by Oren Zeev
Why mentioned: $2.7B across 11 funds with no team or IC; early Navan stake worth over $1B
Quote: "grew a relationship that began with a $50K check into a Navan stake worth over $1B."

Navan

Description: Corporate travel and expense company
Why mentioned: Zeev's $50K check relationship grew into a stake worth over $1B
Quote: "a $50K check into a Navan stake worth over $1B."

SpaceX

Description: Aerospace company
Why mentioned: Cited as a key driver of university endowment gains
Quote: "A huge year for university endowments that backed VC. Especially, SpaceX."

Carnegie Mellon endowment

Description: ~$4B endowment with nearly a quarter in venture
Why mentioned: Underwrites every fund to a 4x net, benchmarked against QQQ
Quote: "how CMU underwrites every fund to a 4x net against the QQQs compounding at 17-18% since 1998"

Harvard endowment

Description: ~$68B endowment
Why mentioned: 27.1% gain for the fiscal year ended June 30
Quote: "Harvard on Thursday reported a 27.1% gain by its endowment for the fiscal year ended June 30, swelling the endowment's coffers to almost $68 billion."

Valar Atomics / Day One Ventures

Description: Nuclear startup, and the VC firm profiled in a longread by Valar's founder
Why mentioned: Featured longread
Quote: "Valar Atomics and Day One Ventures" (Isaiah Taylor, Valar Atomics)

Harmonic

Description: Data platform on 30M+ companies and 190M+ people; partner for the "Seed-to-Scale Signal" ranking
Why mentioned: Powers the custom model scoring seed investors' picking skill
Quote: "aggregates real-time data on 30M+ companies and 190M+ people to surface the signals that actually matter"

Legion

Description: Marketplace matching emerging GPs with LPs
Why mentioned: Sponsor
Quote: "a high-signal marketplace matching emerging GPs with relevant LPs, featuring seamless fund admin, built-in secondary liquidity, and over $300M in investor capital flows."

Other sponsors / ecosystem: Rho ("a modern financial platform for VC-backed startups and emerging fund managers"), Cura ("VC portfolio intelligence on autopilot"), Wonderstruck ("the storytelling and design studio venture-backed companies call when they outgrow their brand").

Fund / hiring signals:

FirstMark: "Angela Liu joins FirstMark as Investor, heading the firm's growth investing strategy and backing AI founders at the next stage of scale"
Multicoin Capital: "Colton Cray takes a seat at Multicoin Capital as Investment Partner, targeting stablecoins, consumer apps and the next wave of financial infrastructure"
Wave Ventures: "Margarethe Böhme takes over Wave Ventures as Managing Partner at 23, becoming the youngest MP in European VC and running its €10M Fund III for 10-20 Nordic pre-seed founders a year"
Overture, Alumni Ventures, Interface Capital: new partner hires (see People)

4. People Identified

Pavel Prata

Description: Author, Murph Capital
Why mentioned: Writes the newsletter; hosts VC Brags and flagship dinners
Quote: "some thoughts I've collected from VC/LP dinner season"

Deedy Das (Menlo Ventures)

Description: Investor
Why mentioned: Highlighted the AI M&A exit wave
Quote: "~$200B of AI startup exits via M&A in 18 months, at a median company age of 4 years"

Meghan Reynolds (Altimeter Capital)

Description: Investor
Why mentioned: Shared LP feedback from Altimeter's AGM
Quote: "Heard from VC LPs this week. It was our AGM, so I had a ton of convos. Theme is liquidity and differentiation."

Ilya Strebulaev (Stanford GSB)

Description: Academic
Why mentioned: Co-author of the AI Venture Ranking
Quote: "The Strebulaev-Jackson AI Venture Ranking of the top 50 VC firms is now live."

Jason Lemkin (SaaStr)

Description: SaaS investor and commentator
Why mentioned: Flagged endowment performance driven by venture
Quote: "A huge year for university endowments that backed VC."

Micky Malka (Ribbit Capital)

Description: Founder of Ribbit Capital
Why mentioned: Subject of the Iconic Fund Breakdown
Quote: "grew up in Venezuela during hyperinflation, built and sold a brokerage and a bank, and in 2012 launched one of the first fintech-only VC funds."

Dan Gray (Odin)

Description: Fund data/research
Why mentioned: Data on emerging managers vs. megafunds backing outliers
Quote: "EMs back 2x more outlier profiles than megafunds as a share of deals"

Steve Kim (Verdis Investment Management)

Description: Fund allocator
Why mentioned: Portfolio-construction data
Quote: "Bigger portfolios lift the median fund from 1.57x to 2.07x at little cost to upside"

Hamza Shad (Carta)

Description: Data analyst
Why mentioned: Fund I to Fund II timeline data
Quote: "Getting from Fund I to Fund II now takes 4 years, up 50% since 2018"

Samir Kaji (Allocate)

Description: Allocator
Why mentioned: Seed pricing and consensus data
Quote: "Consensus has reached seed, and AI deals now price 30-50%+ higher"

Fred Wilson, Rebecca Kaden, Mike Mignano (USV)

Description: USV partners
Why mentioned: Discussed USV's $900M raise and philosophy
Quote: "why USV doesn't need $1T outcomes to return the fund, and why ARR can hide weak retention."

Miles Dieffenbach (Carnegie Mellon)

Description: Former NFL player turned endowment CIO
Why mentioned: Explains CMU's venture underwriting
Quote: "went from getting cut by the Pittsburgh Steelers to overseeing Carnegie Mellon's ~$4B endowment, with nearly a quarter in venture."

Oren Zeev (Zeev Ventures)

Description: Solo GP
Why mentioned: $2.7B across 11 funds with no team
Quote: "His first fund came together in a single 30-minute meeting with Peter Thiel."

Peter Thiel

Description: Investor
Why mentioned: Anchored Zeev's first fund
Quote: "His first fund came together in a single 30-minute meeting with Peter Thiel."

Longread authors: Kyle Harrison (Contrary, "The Death of Venture Capital's Short Kings"), Jake Gibson (Better Tomorrow Ventures, "On Risk"), Martin Casado (a16z, "The Evolving Landscape of Venture Capital Mindsets"), Nnamdi Iregbulem (Lightspeed, "Valuations Need a Correction"), Isaiah Taylor (Valar Atomics).

Report authors: Rohit Yadav ("The Big Book of VC: Q3 2026 Edition"), Nathan Benaich ("State of AI Report 2026").

New hires: Angela Liu (FirstMark), Colton Cray (Multicoin), Margarethe Böhme (Wave Ventures), Lucinda Hankin (Overture: "investing in energy, resilience and industrial transformation"), Christo Ritter (Alumni Ventures), Doreen Huber (Interface Capital: "focused on AI, deep tech, hardware and enterprise software").

5. Operating Insights

Underwrite to a public-market hurdle and demand GP commitment

CMU's benchmark is a useful model for emerging managers preparing for institutional diligence.

"how CMU underwrites every fund to a 4x net against the QQQs compounding at 17-18% since 1998... how GP commitment separates conviction from a free call option"

Plan for a longer Fund I-to-II runway

Budget capital, team, and LP communication for a four-year gap.

"Getting from Fund I to Fund II now takes 4 years, up 50% since 2018"

Use unconventional distribution and events as a media channel

Murph Capital turned physical presence into brand: a banner over SF during RAISE week, a venture-memorabilia gallery at VC Brags, and a curated flagship dinner.

"We figured a room wasn't big enough, so we went with the sky... Sometimes the best media channel is the one nobody can scroll past."

6. Overlooked Insights

Youngest MP in European VC runs a small, high-cadence Nordic pre-seed fund

"Margarethe Böhme takes over Wave Ventures as Managing Partner at 23, becoming the youngest MP in European VC and running its €10M Fund III for 10-20 Nordic pre-seed founders a year"

Proprietary and incubated seeds are a growing share of at least one top fund's pipeline

"why 33-50% of their seeds may be proprietary bets or incubations"