🔥What's Happening in the Markets…

1. Key Themes

Theme: Capital is concentrating at the top while money gets more expensive

Macro turns less forgiving, but private capital keeps flowing to the same few names

The article frames the month around a tension between tightening conditions and concentration of capital.

"October's backdrop: money is getting more expensive, yet capital keeps concentrating in the same few names."

"US CPI rose to 3.7% in September from 3.4%, pushed up by energy, while the economy added just 29,000 jobs. That is the hardest mix for a central bank, and economists now expect the Fed to follow September's hike with another in December."

Public markets are starting to question AI financing

"The Nasdaq just had its worst week since June as investors began questioning how the AI build-out will be financed at higher rates. Even SpaceX is now seeking to borrow $40B to buy Nvidia chips."

Venture funding is accelerating, led by AI

"Venture funding reached $159B in Q3, up 53% year on year, with AI taking almost two thirds."

Theme: The IPO window is open for scale and shut for nearly everyone else

Mega-IPOs (Anthropic) proceed while mid-size listings stall

"Anthropic is reportedly preparing to start marketing its IPO as early as the week of 9 November, with a Nasdaq debut before Thanksgiving that could raise around $100B."

"The window is open for scale and shut for nearly everyone else. Excluding SK hynix, Q3 US IPOs raised just $6.2B, according to Renaissance Capital."

Oura's pulled deal shows valuation and structure discipline from buyers

"Oura pulled its ~$2.2B IPO on the day it was due to price despite a covered book, after pushback on a valuation of about $15B and a deal where 73% of shares came from existing shareholders."

Theme: M&A is near record highs, but premium multiples are cooling and mix-driven

Deal value is up on bigger cheques, with the size premium fading

"YTD deal value reached $3.0T, up from $2.8T last month. With ten weeks still to go, 2026 is already the second-biggest year in the dataset, behind only 2025 ($3.1T) and ahead of 2021 ($2.9T). The growth comes from bigger cheques. The average deal is $218M, the highest since 2015 and 82% above 2024's $120M."

"The average has eased every month since July's $265M and now sits at $218M... the size premium is fading but far from gone."

Software commands premium multiples; asset-heavy sectors don't

"Software assets (PTC, Varonis, CCC) cleared 5.8x to 10.1x revenue, while retail, pharmacy, healthcare services and logistics businesses (Penske, Boots, Option Care, RXO) cleared 0.5x to 1.0x. That mix pulled the Top 10 median down to 3.4x revenue from 5.7x in September."

Premium multiples halved with no AI deal in the top 10

"The Top 10 median halved to 10.7x from 20.0x, and no AI deal made the list a month after Hugging Face went at 86x."

Theme: Public-market multiples concentrate in a narrow elite

The top public names get "twice the growth, seven times the multiple"

"The Top 10 median grows 22%, twice the overall median of 11%, yet trades at 15.6x revenue against 2.2x, about seven times higher... Twice the growth, seven times the multiple."

Palantir extends its lead

"Palantir extends its lead at 38.1x on 54% growth and a 63% EBITDA margin."

2. Contrarian Perspectives

Private investors pay a premium to public software and discount Chinese scale

Valuation gaps are driven by geography as much as fundamentals.

"The US and UK names trade at 19x to 34x revenue, led by OpenAI at 34.1x, while the two Chinese companies, ByteDance (2.6x) and Ant Group (3.2x), sit near 3x. Even Revolut at 19.2x is priced above the 15.6x median of the public Top 10. Private investors are paying a premium to the best public software names and applying a steep discount to Chinese scale."

Non-AI companies can still command top-tier valuations when growth is visible

AI is not the only route to premium pricing.

"Ramp raised at $60B, up from $44B in June and at most ~30x its $2B+ revenue, proof that investors still pay up outside AI when growth shows in the numbers."

Anthropic's IPO case rests on explosive growth against heavy compute obligations

The reported figures show hypergrowth alongside enormous commitments.

"A confidential draft filing reviewed by Reuters showed nearly $4.6B of 2025 revenue against at least $518B of compute commitments, and the company reportedly told investors that Q3 revenue reached $16.8B, a ~$67B run rate."

3. Companies Identified

Anthropic

Description: AI lab, #1 private company by valuation
Why mentioned: Top private company and imminent mega-IPO candidate
Quotes: "Anthropic ($965B) and OpenAI ($852B) hold the top two spots for a fourth month." / "Anthropic is reportedly preparing to start marketing its IPO as early as the week of 9 November, with a Nasdaq debut before Thanksgiving that could raise around $100B."

OpenAI

Description: AI lab, #2 private company
Why mentioned: Highest private revenue multiple
Quotes: "The US and UK names trade at 19x to 34x revenue, led by OpenAI at 34.1x."

ByteDance

Description: Chinese tech company, #3 private
Why mentioned: Example of the discount applied to Chinese scale
Quotes: "ByteDance ($480B)... ByteDance (2.6x) and Ant Group (3.2x), sit near 3x."

Databricks

Description: Data and AI platform, #4 private
Why mentioned: Top 10 private company
Quotes: "ahead of ByteDance ($480B), Databricks ($190B) and Stripe ($159B)."

Stripe

Description: Payments company, #5 private
Why mentioned: Top 10 private company
Quotes: "Databricks ($190B) and Stripe ($159B)."

Blue Origin

Description: Space company
Why mentioned: New entrant to the Top 10 private list
Quotes: "Blue Origin enters at sixth with $140B."

Ant Group

Description: Chinese fintech
Why mentioned: Closes the Top 10; trades near 3x revenue
Quotes: "Ant Group closes the table at $79B and Anduril drops out."

Anduril

Description: Defense technology company
Why mentioned: Dropped out of the Top 10
Quotes: "Anduril drops out."

Revolut

Description: Fintech
Why mentioned: Priced above the public Top 10 median
Quotes: "Even Revolut at 19.2x is priced above the 15.6x median of the public Top 10."

Ramp

Description: Corporate spend/fintech company
Why mentioned: Non-AI company raising at a premium
Quotes: "Ramp raised at $60B, up from $44B in June and at most ~30x its $2B+ revenue."

Oura

Description: Wearable health company
Why mentioned: Pulled its IPO on pricing day
Quotes: "Oura pulled its ~$2.2B IPO on the day it was due to price despite a covered book."

SpaceX

Description: Space and launch company
Why mentioned: Seeking debt to buy Nvidia chips, a signal of AI capex financing
Quotes: "Even SpaceX is now seeking to borrow $40B to buy Nvidia chips."

Schneider Electric / PTC

Description: Industrial/energy management company acquiring a software firm
Why mentioned: Largest deal of the month
Quotes: "PTC to Schneider Electric leads at $23,700M (8.7x revenue), Schneider's largest deal ever."

Canadian Utilities / Emera

Description: Utilities
Why mentioned: Second-largest deal
Quotes: "Canadian Utilities to Emera ($19,663M, 7.6x)."

Penske Automotive (Penske Corp, Mitsui)

Description: Auto retailer taken private
Why mentioned: Third-largest deal; low-multiple example
Quotes: "the Penske Automotive take-private by Penske Corp and Mitsui ($16,300M)."

Varonis, CCC

Description: Software companies
Why mentioned: Software deals at premium multiples
Quotes: "Software assets (PTC, Varonis, CCC) cleared 5.8x to 10.1x revenue."

Boots, Option Care, RXO

Description: Pharmacy, healthcare services, logistics
Why mentioned: Low-multiple, asset-heavy deals
Quotes: "retail, pharmacy, healthcare services and logistics businesses (Penske, Boots, Option Care, RXO) cleared 0.5x to 1.0x."

IntraBio / Shionogi

Description: Biotech acquisition
Why mentioned: Highest multiple deal of the month
Quotes: "IntraBio to Shionogi leads at 55.9x, which implies only about $36M of forward revenue on a $2,000M price."

Envoy Technologies, ScoutDI

Description: Small specialised assets
Why mentioned: Examples of small deals filling the Top 10
Quotes: "four of the ten sit below $300M EV, including Envoy Technologies (16.3x) and ScoutDI (11.0x)."

ITM / Telix

Description: Munich-based company acquired by Telix
Why mentioned: Example of milestone-heavy deal structure
Quotes: "Munich-based ITM went to Telix at 8.6x ($2,350M), with up to $700M of that in contingent payments after an FDA setback."

Hugging Face

Description: AI platform
Why mentioned: Prior month's 86x deal as a contrast
Quotes: "no AI deal made the list a month after Hugging Face went at 86x."

Palantir

Description: Data analytics/AI software company
Why mentioned: Leads public multiples
Quotes: "Palantir extends its lead at 38.1x on 54% growth and a 63% EBITDA margin."

Cloudflare, CrowdStrike

Description: Public security/infrastructure software companies
Why mentioned: Gave back part of September's jump
Quotes: "Cloudflare (29.8x from 33.2x) and CrowdStrike (32.8x from 34.8x) gave back part of September's jump."

Cadence, TechnologyOne

Description: Public software companies
Why mentioned: Firmed at the bottom of the Top 10
Quotes: "while Cadence and TechnologyOne firmed at the bottom."

4. People Identified

Andre Retterath

Description: Author of Data Driven VC
Why mentioned: Newsletter author curating the data
Quotes: "👋 Hi, I'm Andre and welcome to my newsletter Data Driven VC which is all about becoming a better investor with data and AI."

(No other individuals are named in the article.)

5. Operating Insights

Expect a buyer discount on deals heavy with insiders or priced aggressively

Oura's pulled IPO shows that a covered book is not enough if valuation and share structure draw pushback.

"Oura pulled its ~$2.2B IPO on the day it was due to price despite a covered book, after pushback on a valuation of about $15B and a deal where 73% of shares came from existing shareholders."

Structure deals with contingent consideration when risk is unresolved

Acquirers are shifting price into milestones rather than cutting headline value.

"Munich-based ITM went to Telix at 8.6x ($2,350M), with up to $700M of that in contingent payments after an FDA setback. Buyers still pay premiums and push more of the price into milestones."

Growth that shows in the numbers still earns premiums, even outside AI

Fundamentals-backed growth, not just narrative, supports top valuations.

"Ramp raised at $60B... proof that investors still pay up outside AI when growth shows in the numbers."

6. Overlooked Insights

Public AI infrastructure financing is shifting to debt

SpaceX borrowing $40B for chips hints that even well-capitalised players are leaning on leverage for AI capex, which could amplify sensitivity to rate hikes.

"Even SpaceX is now seeking to borrow $40B to buy Nvidia chips."

Premiums are coming out of non-AI sectors like healthcare and hardware

The multiples section previews a notable de-rating beneath the headline numbers.

"the Top 10 line-up holds unchanged after four entries in September, while healthcare and hardware premiums give back more than 20%."