🔥 How Private Markets Partied… | Data Driven VC Summary

Summary for Investors & Entrepreneurs

1. Key Themes

Theme 1: AI Mega-Caps Have Structurally Decoupled from the Rest of the Private Market

The most important structural shift in private markets is not a cycle — it's a bifurcation. AI-first companies are operating on an entirely different valuation plane than everything else, and the gap is widening.

"Mega-cap AI valuations have decoupled from the rest of the private market, setting new records regardless of macro conditions."

"Four of the top six names are AI-first. The combined valuation of OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, and ByteDance has more than doubled since the start of 2025, pulling the composition of the top 10 into a two-tier structure: AI mega-caps, then everyone else."

Theme 2: Anthropic's Revenue Velocity Is Rewriting Private Market Valuation Norms

Anthropic's growth rate is the single most striking data point in the article. A 1,400% YoY revenue growth trajectory has prompted secondary market investors to price Anthropic above OpenAI — a historic inversion.

"Anthropic's annualized revenue reportedly reached $30B by end of March, up from $9B at end of 2025, a 1,400% year-over-year growth rate. Secondary market investors are now pricing Anthropic at a premium to OpenAI for the first time."

"Bloomberg reported on April 14 that investors have offered $800B+ for a new round, which Anthropic has so far resisted."

Theme 3: M&A Has Replaced IPOs as the Primary Liquidity Path

With virtually no IPO completions, M&A has surged to fill the liquidity gap — and it is not a temporary patch. The shift toward fewer, larger deals is now three quarters old and appears structural.

"In light of very few public listings in the last few months, M&A has surged to become the more critical path for liquidity."

"Transaction count is tracking slightly above 2025's pace, deal volume is running nearly 2x YoY, and the average deal size remains structurally elevated versus the 2025 baseline. The shift toward fewer, bigger deals is now three quarters old and looks structural rather than cyclical."

Theme 4: Public and Private Markets Are Pricing Geopolitical Risk Away — Possibly Prematurely

Despite an active Iran war, oil at $115/barrel, and a US Navy blockade, markets hit all-time highs. The article flags this as a potentially dangerous disconnect.

"Brent peaked at $115/barrel on April 6, the highest since the Iran war began... Crude plunged 11.4% in a single session to $83.85, and the S&P 500 hit record highs the same day."

"Part of the reason is that the market is pricing in a resolution faster than the diplomacy actually suggests. Ship traffic through the strait remains well below pre-war levels, and the blockade is still in effect."

Theme 5: Valuation Multiples Are Compressing But Finding a Floor — With Profitability Rewarded

The market is entering a normalization phase. Median multiples have stabilized even as averages continue to compress, and profitability is now being explicitly rewarded.

"The Top 10 average EV/NTM revenue declined from 17.0x in March to 16.1x in April, continuing a gradual compression. The median held at 13.8x (vs 13.6x in March), confirming the floor we flagged last month."

"Top 10 average EBITDA margin improved to 41% (vs 37% in March), while average growth held at 26% (vs 25% last month). Companies are being rewarded for profitability improvement even as absolute multiples compress."

2. Contrarian Perspectives

Contrarian 1: Anthropic May Already Be More Valuable Than OpenAI — Despite Half the Valuation Mark

The consensus view anchors Anthropic's value at its $380B formal mark. But secondary market behavior tells a different story entirely, with investors willing to pay a premium to OpenAI's $950B secondary price — making Anthropic arguably the more attractive asset on a growth-adjusted basis.

"Its formal mark sits at $380B from the $30B Series G closed in February. Bloomberg reported on April 14 that investors have offered $800B+ for a new round, which Anthropic has so far resisted."

The revenue evidence supports this rerating: a 1,400% YoY growth rate is extraordinary even by AI standards, and Anthropic's resistance to taking capital at $800B+ suggests management believes the company is worth even more — or is strategically managing dilution.

Contrarian 2: The IPO Window Is Open, But the Best Companies Don't Want to Use It

The conventional narrative is that IPO markets are closed or uncertain. The reality is more interesting: public market conditions are strong, but elite private companies are actively choosing to stay private.

"The paradox holds. Public market conditions are strong on the surface, but only a single name from the top tier has committed to the window."

Only SpaceX has filed an S-1. OpenAI, Anthropic, Stripe, Databricks, and Waymo all remain private despite favorable conditions. This suggests the private capital markets — not public ones — are now the preferred long-term operating environment for elite companies.

Contrarian 3: M&A Middle Market Expansion Signals Broader Ecosystem Health Than Headlines Suggest

The headline M&A story is mega-deals. But the more significant signal is the broadening into the middle market — suggesting deal activity is not concentrated at the top but is spreading across company sizes and sectors.

"What's new in April is the broadening of the middle market, with the overall 30-day median stepping up to 2.9x while premium outliers moderated from March's extremes."

"The overall 30-day median of $201M at 2.9x EV/Revenue is a meaningful uplift from March's $72M at 1.6x, confirming that M&A has broadened from mega-deal concentration into the middle market."

3. Companies Identified

OpenAI

Description: Leading AI lab and consumer AI platform
Why mentioned: #1 in private market valuations; key benchmark for AI market sizing
Quote: "OpenAI's secondary market valuation sits at $950B, reflecting the closing of its record $122B primary round at an $852B post-money valuation on March 31, plus continued premium from secondary buyers. At $2B in monthly revenue and 910M weekly active users as of February, the multiple remains steep but the growth trajectory keeps pulling investors forward."

Anthropic

Description: AI safety-focused lab and Claude model developer
Why mentioned: Fastest-growing revenue trajectory in the private market; now priced at a premium to OpenAI on secondary markets
Quote: "Anthropic's annualized revenue reportedly reached $30B by end of March, up from $9B at end of 2025, a 1,400% year-over-year growth rate. Secondary market investors are now pricing Anthropic at a premium to OpenAI for the first time."

SpaceX

Description: Aerospace and satellite communications company
Why mentioned: Only top-tier private company to file an S-1; targeting the largest IPO in history
Quote: "SpaceX filed a confidential S-1 with the SEC on April 1, 2026, targeting a June/July listing at a post-IPO valuation of approximately $1.5-1.75 trillion. This would be the largest IPO in history by a wide margin, eclipsing Saudi Aramco's 2019 record of $25.6B."

xAI

Description: Elon Musk's AI company
Why mentioned: Top 6 private company at $230B; part of the AI mega-cap cohort
Quote: "xAI at #6 at $230B round out the top six."

Tether

Description: Stablecoin issuer
Why mentioned: #3 in private market valuations at $500B — a notable non-AI entrant in the top tier
Quote: "Tether at #3 at $500B."

ByteDance

Description: Chinese technology conglomerate, parent of TikTok
Why mentioned: #5 at $330B; classified as AI-first in the article's two-tier framework
Quote: "ByteDance at #5 at $330B... Four of the top six names are AI-first."

Stripe

Description: Payments infrastructure company
Why mentioned: Valuation rerated from $107B to $159B in February; now treated as a stable baseline
Quote: "Stripe's February-to-March rerating from $107B to $159B now locked in as the new baseline rather than a one-month anomaly."

Databricks

Description: Data and AI platform
Why mentioned: #9 in private market valuations at $134B
Quote: "Databricks at #9 ($134B)."

Waymo

Description: Autonomous vehicle company (Alphabet subsidiary)
Why mentioned: #10 in private market valuations at $126B
Quote: "Waymo at #10 ($126B) complete the list."

Cerebras

Description: AI chip and compute company
Why mentioned: Filed public S-1 on April 17, targeting a May listing at $35B+
Quote: "Cerebras publicly filed its S-1 on April 17 targeting a May listing at $35B+."

X-Energy

Description: Nuclear energy company
Why mentioned: Filed S-1 in March targeting AI-driven nuclear capacity demand; listing on Nasdaq under "XE"
Quote: "X-Energy publicly filed its S-1 in March (listing on Nasdaq under 'XE'), targeting the AI-driven nuclear capacity buildout."

Palantir

Description: Data analytics and AI software company
Why mentioned: #1 in EV/NTM Revenue multiples at 38.3x, with best-in-class operating metrics
Quote: "Palantir remains #1 at 38.3x, continuing a steady compression from 50x in February and 43.1x in March. Its growth (54%), EBITDA margin (58%), and gross margin (85%) remain best-in-class."

Cloudflare

Description: Network infrastructure and security company
Why mentioned: #2 in EV/NTM Revenue at 21.4x
Quote: "Cloudflare at 21.4x, AppLovin at 16.3x, CrowdStrike at 15.8x, and VeriSign at 14.8x hold the next four positions."

AppLovin

Description: Mobile marketing and AI-driven advertising platform
Why mentioned: Top 10 by EV/NTM Revenue at 16.3x
Quote: "Cloudflare at 21.4x, AppLovin at 16.3x."

Globalstar (acquired by Amazon)

Description: Satellite communications company
Why mentioned: Highest EV/Revenue multiple deal of the month at 42.0x, reflecting Amazon's strategic premium for Kuiper satellite infrastructure
Quote: "Globalstar to Amazon at 42.0x is the highest multiple deal of the month, reflecting Amazon's strategic premium on satellite communications infrastructure for its Kuiper network."

Unilever (foods unit) / McCormick

Description: Consumer staples M&A transaction
Why mentioned: Largest single deal of April at $44.8B
Quote: "Unilever's foods unit sale to McCormick at $44.8B as the single largest deal of the month."

Ant Group

Description: Chinese fintech company
Why mentioned: #7 in private market valuations at $210B
Quote: "Ant Group at #7 ($210B)."

4. People Identified

Cynthia Gaylor

Description: Incoming Head of Investor Relations at OpenAI; former CFO of DocuSign
Why mentioned: Her hire signals OpenAI is preparing for an H2 2026 S-1 filing and a 2027 public listing
Quote: "OpenAI has hired its first head of investor relations, Cynthia Gaylor (former CFO of DocuSign), consistent with an H2 2026 filing and a 2027 listing at up to $1T."

Andre Retterath

Description: Author of the Data Driven VC newsletter; venture investor focused on data-driven investing
Why mentioned: Author and curator of the market analysis
Quote: "Hi, I'm Andre and welcome to my newsletter Data Driven VC which is all about becoming a better investor with data and AI."

5. Operating Insights

Insight 1: Profitability Is Now a Multiple Expander, Not Just a Risk Reducer

The market has shifted from rewarding growth at all costs to explicitly rewarding margin improvement — even as absolute multiples compress. Operators should prioritize EBITDA margin improvement as a valuation lever, not just a defensive measure.

"Top 10 average EBITDA margin improved to 41% (vs 37% in March), while average growth held at 26% (vs 25% last month). Companies are being rewarded for profitability improvement even as absolute multiples compress."

Insight 2: M&A Is Now a Primary Go-to-Market for Liquidity — Build With Strategic Buyers in Mind

With the IPO window functionally closed for all but one top-tier company, operators and founders should actively court strategic acquirers as a core exit path. The broadening into the middle market means smaller companies are now viable M&A targets.

"M&A has surged to become the more critical path for liquidity... the overall 30-day median of $201M at 2.9x EV/Revenue is a meaningful uplift from March's $72M at 1.6x, confirming that M&A has broadened from mega-deal concentration into the middle market."

Insight 3: The 2-3x EV/Revenue Band Is the Durable Market Floor — Benchmark Accordingly

For operators pricing rounds or negotiating M&A valuations outside the AI mega-cap tier, the long-running 2-3x EV/NTM Revenue band is the empirical anchor the market keeps returning to.

"The overall median slipped slightly from 2.4x in March to 2.2x in April, consistent with the long-term 2-3x band that has held since 2022."

6. Overlooked Insights

Insight 1: Tether at $500B Is the Third Largest Private Company in the World

Tether — a stablecoin issuer — sits at #3 in private market valuations, ahead of ByteDance ($330B) and behind only SpaceX ($800B) and OpenAI ($950B). This is a remarkable and underreported signal about the scale of crypto-native financial infrastructure. The article mentions it without commentary:

"Tether at #3 at $500B."

For investors and entrepreneurs, this suggests the market is assigning enormous strategic value to financial infrastructure that sits outside the traditional banking system — a potentially underweighted investment theme.

Insight 2: Strategic Infrastructure Acquisitions Are Commanding Extraordinary Premiums — Satellite Communications as a Case Study

Amazon paid 42.0x EV/Revenue for Globalstar — not for its current business, but for its utility as satellite infrastructure for the Kuiper network. This is a signal that strategic acquirers will pay nearly any multiple for assets that lock in critical infrastructure dependencies.

"Globalstar to Amazon at 42.0x is the highest multiple deal of the month, reflecting Amazon's strategic premium on satellite communications infrastructure for its Kuiper network."

Founders building infrastructure that hyperscalers will eventually need — compute, energy, connectivity, cooling — should understand they are operating in a category where strategic value, not financial multiples, sets the price.