Harrison Rolfes

“As OpenAI tries to convince investors that it's worth $1.43 trillion, our own math puts the company's valuation closer to $1 trillion.”

“The report pegs operating value at $68.7 billion versus the $190 billion price tag investors just paid, a 64% gap.”

“Cursor turns SpaceX's xAI investment from an infrastructure bet into a vertically integrated enterprise platform. Without Cursor, SpaceX owns expensive compute and a model seeking distribution. — Harrison Rolfes, PitchBook senior research analyst”

“"The sell-off repriced the exit pipeline, so every chip startup that marked itself against Q2's peak now faces a bid-ask gap with public buyers, which historically resolves as deferral rather than cancellation." — PitchBook senior analyst Harrison Rolfes”

“Author of the featured analysis on AI model true costs (the 'Anthropic's priciest tokens do the cheapest work' piece).”

“"Databricks' raise is modest by the standards of the moment... the fun fact is that a raise this size looks almost quaint by Anthropic's standards." — Harrison Rolfes, PitchBook Senior Analyst”

“Transformers and interconnection queues: Capital can eventually engineer around [that]. Permits and a governor's signature, it can't.”

“By Harrison Rolfes, Senior Research Analyst”

“That could give OpenAI an advantage by letting it observe Anthropic's disclosures and adjust its own approach accordingly, ultimately working in OpenAI's favor.”

“OpenAI is going public as the most expensive AI company in its peer group—not by market cap, but by what investors are paying for each unit of business quality.”

“"Had Musk won, Altman could have been pushed out of OpenAI again, just as he was in 2023... Instead, OpenAI can keep expanding without the immediate threat of Musk forcing changes through the courts." — Harrison Rolfes, PitchBook analyst”

“Claude Code drove a lot of that, pulling enterprise developers into workflows that then expanded into department-wide contracts at 140%+ net retention.”

“Investors are paying roughly 1.8 times more per equity dollar deployed into Anthropic, and that gap has been widening for two consecutive rounds.”

“OpenAI removed all the overhangs Anthropic was built without. OpenAI is definitely racing to look more like Anthropic. An IPO seems more likely, but they still have to tighten loose ends.”