Pavel Prata
Substack author publishing data-driven analysis of venture capital fund performance and Zombie VC dynamics.
“Podcast: Pavel Prata | Date: 2026-06-10”
“These 10 funds made ~140 to 150 early-stage deals/year in the SaaS era. In the AI era that figure is ~370 to 400/year.”
Source→“Each returned 12x TVPI – top of vintage. @barendvandenb and @ileri built them by flying to Istanbul and Athens before anyone else had a term sheet ready.”
“Growing DPI dispersion, combined with increasing concentration in top portfolio assets and slow exit activity, is creating perfect conditions for 'Zombie VCs'... The top 25-30 private assets are not evenly distributed across GP or LP portfolios. Zombies live among us.”
“When most emerging GPs raising Fund I or II talk about 'approaching FoFs,' they are (whether they know it or not) targeting a universe of roughly 30+ firms which is only 25% of all FoFs.”
“IRR hides the problem. GPs can show double-digit returns for years simply by marking up positions and extending fund life — and everything looks fine on paper until you check actual DPI.”
“In Q1 2026, the top 5 VC firms captured 73.1% of all LP commitments (vs 12 funds captured 75% of LP dollars in 2025).”
“Each seed-to-upround conversion is scored using three factors…Stage Weight – Series C = 3x, Series B = 2x, Series A = 1x…Lead Bonus – If the fund led the original seed round, the score gets a 1.5x multiplier.”
AI-extracted from podcast / newsletter / paper summaries. May contain errors.