Jack Clark

“SWE-Bench was introduced in October 2023 and has probably recently aged out of usefulness due to saturation. How long might FrontierCode last? I predict we'll see systems getting 70%+ on Diamond by June 2027.”

“I predict we'll see systems getting 70%+ on Diamond by June 2027 (note, shortly after writing this, the Claude Fable numbers got published at ~30%, so perhaps it'll happen earlier than June 2027).”

“Clark assigns a 60% probability to the maximalist RSI scenario (AI autonomously designing its successor) by end of 2028 — a much tighter timeline than mainstream consensus.”

“Anthropic's internal data shows an 8x increase in lines of code merged into their codebase in 2026 vs. 2021–2024, with the trend starting in 2025 and accelerating sharply.”

“"The big story here is what we see are indications that, contrary to some popular opinion, AI progress is going to speed up in coming years rather than stay the same, or diminish." — Jack Clark, Anthropic”

“US compute spending tripled in two years ($37B → $90B → $219B), while raw compute capacity grew at over 200% per year — none of which shows up meaningfully in GDP.”

“Thanks to Santi Ruiz for help with editing.”

“It is based on a common technology where performance keeps growing somewhat predictably in direct relation to the resources invested in it, namely compute and data. And we know that companies are now investing hundreds of billions of dollars in the computing facilities to train future AI systems, so some amount of future progress is already locked in.”

“Some of them were no longer writing code at all: they were just instantiating this model in tools like Claude Code and setting it free to do tasks for them, and their jobs had become oriented more around managing its work and checking its outputs than doing the work themselves.”

“The Epoch Capabilities Index (ECI), tracking 40+ benchmarks, shows a consistent upward trend — from passing the bar exam (2023) to gold medal at the International Math Olympiad (2025) to co-authoring novel mathematical proofs (2025).”

“I suspect a lot of AI research, perhaps the majority of it, is basic engineering work where today's systems are already competent. Research like this seems to bear that out, showing how modern LLMs can do some aspects of AI research.”

“Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark believes that there is a good chance we only have about two years.”

“Anthropic is forming a roughly $1.5 billion venture, with investors including Blackstone, Hellman & Friedman, and Goldman Sachs.”

“When SWE-Bench launched in late 2023 the best score at the time was Claude 2 which had an overall success rate of ~2%. Claude Mythos Preview gets 93.9%, effectively saturating the benchmark.”

“I reluctantly come to the view that there's a likely chance (60%+) that no-human-involved AI R&D — an AI system powerful enough that it could plausibly autonomously build its own successor — happens by the end of 2028.”