Tomasz Tunguz

“AI inference is projected to reach about $350B by 2027, passing the $190B database market by nearly 2x. Companies paid roughly $25B to run AI models in 2025.”

“Tunguz describes demand shaped like a bell curve with a fat middle.”

“Tomasz Tunguz has argued for handing a daily assistant a 24 hour life, delegating the real work to narrow specialists that live for seconds and then disappear, and writing the durable preferences to a file on disk at midnight while the rest of the day's conversation gets discarded.”

“Linked for further reading on 'Valuing AI Harnesses'”

“Tomasz Tunguz finds that despite collapsing SaaS multiples, one company in nearly every category still commands a premium, with AI providing the common thread.”

“These multiples require growth roughly 3x faster than a normal SaaS company, which is what these five names are actually posting right now. If a portfolio company can't show that same growth premium, a 25-125x ARR multiple doesn't apply to it, no matter how similar the product category looks.”

“The 100x ARR Multiple Is Back: The article notes a 2021 piece on the '100x ARR multiple' as a historical premium; five years later, multiples are back at similar levels, but reported growth rates underneath are running roughly 3x faster... Legora, Sierra, and Ramp saw theirs accelerate starting January 2026, driven partly by sustained growth and a more favorable fundraising market.”

“In the last 10 years, there really was no breakout success, said Theory Ventures' GP Tomasz Tunguz of prior waves of infrastructure cost-cutting startups.”

“Tomasz Tunguz at Theory Ventures documented a personal agent architecture called Pi, where frontier models author procedural skill files that smaller local models execute.”

“Tomasz Tunguz at Theory Ventures documented a personal agent architecture called Pi, where frontier models author procedural skill files that smaller local models execute.”

“Hourly rates moved from $2.31 to $4.95 in six weeks as Blackwell demand tightened supply across major model launches. Price gap versus H200 widened again, showing newer workloads are hardware-bound while prior gen chips lose pricing power.”