Peter Walker

“Peter Walker, Head of Insights at Carta, analysed DPI distributions across 2,689 US venture funds ranging from $10M to $1B+ to assess how capital is actually being returned to limited partners.”

“The 2021 vintage five-year distribution: 50th percentile 1.04x, 75th 1.29x, 90th 1.54x, 95th 1.93x… The entire cohort's distribution is compressed toward 1x in a way no prior vintage shows at the same age.”

“Walker's four headwinds: Record investor entry, peak entry valuations, the 2022 rate reversal, and the AI platform shift.”

“2021 Vintage at -4.3% Median IRR: Funds that printed explosive early IRR through rapid markup cycles are now dragging under stale marks. Top-quartile (75th percentile) sits at just 1.3% as of Q1 2026.”

“Peter Walker, Head of Insights at Carta, published net IRR percentiles by vintage across 2,276 US venture funds ($10M to $1B+), measured March 31, 2026.”

“The median seed round reached $4.5M in 2026, up from $2.5M in 2019. Series A median is now $16M, up from $9M. The median check to lead a seed round is now $2.3M vs. $1.2M in 2019; Series A lead checks are $8M vs. $4.5M.”

“Why emerging managers and mega funds aren't actually competing.”

“Peter Walker (Head of Insights at Carta) shared data showing the enormous variance in valuation caps for post-money SAFEs at every round size, arguing that anyone claiming there is a 'right' number is lying.”

“Founder 'legibility' is the primary driver of valuation variance, not traction or product metrics: Some founders are legible enough from their resumes alone to command multiple offers at high prices.”