Peter Walker

“The 25th percentile fund sits at 1.06x net TVPI and the 50th percentile at 1.38x, both described in the data as close to a total miss on invested capital... The 99th percentile is a different business entirely: Top 1% funds post 13.12x net TVPI, an order of magnitude above the median.”

“Over 70% of vested startup equity goes unexercised when employees leave — and the AI company premium nearly vanished. Non-exercise rates at AI companies... climbed back to 70% by Q2 2025”

“"Series A's top 1% just hit $1.19B, and it's warping how the whole market looks" — Peter Walker, Carta (LinkedIn post)”

“Medians now run 1.9 years Seed to Series A, 2.3 years A to B, and 2.2 years B to C.”

“Walker flags 'AI Infrastructure, Semiconductors, Hardware and Cybersecurity as the sectors investors love most, against a median of $70.0M on a $14.1M median raise.'”

“Peter Walker from Carta shows that market concentration is far more extreme outside the US than most investors assume.”

“Peter Walker, Head of Insights at Carta, analysed DPI distributions across 2,689 US venture funds ranging from $10M to $1B+ to assess how capital is actually being returned to limited partners.”

“The 2021 vintage five-year distribution: 50th percentile 1.04x, 75th 1.29x, 90th 1.54x, 95th 1.93x… The entire cohort's distribution is compressed toward 1x in a way no prior vintage shows at the same age.”

“Walker's four headwinds: Record investor entry, peak entry valuations, the 2022 rate reversal, and the AI platform shift.”

“Peter Walker, Head of Insights at Carta, published net IRR percentiles by vintage across 2,276 US venture funds ($10M to $1B+), measured March 31, 2026.”

“2021 Vintage at -4.3% Median IRR: Funds that printed explosive early IRR through rapid markup cycles are now dragging under stale marks. Top-quartile (75th percentile) sits at just 1.3% as of Q1 2026.”

“The median seed round reached $4.5M in 2026, up from $2.5M in 2019. Series A median is now $16M, up from $9M. The median check to lead a seed round is now $2.3M vs. $1.2M in 2019; Series A lead checks are $8M vs. $4.5M.”

“Why emerging managers and mega funds aren't actually competing.”

“Founder 'legibility' is the primary driver of valuation variance, not traction or product metrics: Some founders are legible enough from their resumes alone to command multiple offers at high prices.”

“Peter Walker (Head of Insights at Carta) shared data showing the enormous variance in valuation caps for post-money SAFEs at every round size, arguing that anyone claiming there is a 'right' number is lying.”