Edition #16: 32 New Funds, Who…

1. Key Themes

Non-Consensus Investing Drives Outsized VC Returns

The highest-returning funds were not consensus picks at inception — and most LPs missed them entirely.

"The top 3 U.S. funds by TVPI: Founder Fund II (~300x), Blockchain Capital II (~208x), and Lowercase (~204x). None were consensus at inception, and most LPs missed them." — Pavel Prata, via GP/LP gathering data point from a "legendary LP"

Power Law Concentration Is Extreme — One Winner Dwarfs Loss Prevention

The difference between fixing every loss versus finding one 100x deal is dramatic, and the math should reshape how GPs think about portfolio construction.

"Fixing every loss moves TVPI 0.40x, one 100x moves it 2.74x." — Steve Kim, Verdis Investment Management

Additionally, the median fund barely breaks even while a tiny elite tier delivers exceptional returns:

"Median VC returns 1.38x, the top 1% return 13x." — Peter Walker, Carta (across 400+ funds)

LP Sentiment Is Shifting: From Valuation Anxiety to Pacing and Liquidity

LPs have been locked into the same small set of concerns — now attention is moving toward GP pacing and whether growth has an expiration date.

"It's been awhile since I've posted, mostly b/c I was hearing the same thing again and again from LPs — for a yr+ it's been a focus on the same small set of companies, same concerns (valuations), same needs (liquidity), same plans (increasing $$ into the same...)" — Meghan Reynolds, Altimeter Capital

Robotics & Physical AI Is Attracting Serious Investor Attention

Talent moves are a leading indicator of capital flows, and multiple senior hires are now explicitly focused on physical AI.

"Karolina Dubiel joins Chapter One as an investor focused on robotics & physical AI" and "Adit Singh moves to Mayfield as an infrastructure partner covering semiconductors, cybersecurity & physical AI." — Signals section, Murph Capital

Emerging GPs Must Demonstrate Two Distinct Types of Founder Access

LPs expect seed GPs to show they can identify non-consensus founders and maintain access to the most competitive deals.

"LPs will want to see that the GP can identify non-consensus founders who ultimately build (and exit) consensus companies AND have access to exceptional [founders]." — Michael Kim, Cendana Capital

2. Contrarian Perspectives

The best VC funds are built before raising outside capital — track records made with personal money are more signal-rich than institutional ones.

Felicis is the case study: Aydin Senkut built his track record using his own money at small check sizes before any LP capital was involved.

"Before he raised a dollar of outside money, Senkut was Google's first PM. He took that payout and started writing $25K–$150K checks into about three dozen startups: Meraki (2006 angel check, Cisco bought it for $1.2B)..." — Pavel Prata, Iconic Fund Breakdown

Despite this, LPs systemically discount exactly this type of track record:

Helen Min "explains why LPs are reluctant to count an angel track record toward a fund manager's credibility." — Podcast section, Murph Capital

Hype is a poor guide to which companies actually get built — 20 years of Hacker News data proves it.

"Should you chase hype or ignore it? The tech industry has been debating this for decades. So at Sequoia, we dug into 20 years of hype data... [ranking] the most hyped topics [vs. the company that actually got built]." — Konstantine Buhler, Sequoia

The implication: investors who chase the loudest signal are systematically chasing the wrong one.

A proof-of-concept fund beats a bigger raise — restraint in fund size is a feature, not a limitation.

"Why a proof-of-concept fund beats a bigger raise." — Sam Huleatt, The Side Letter

This challenges the conventional GP instinct to raise as large a fund as possible, as a smaller fund can serve as a genuine demonstration of picking skill before committing to institutional scale.

3. Companies Identified

Felicis Ventures

Description: Venture capital firm that grew from Aydin Senkut's personal angel portfolio into a $900M+ institutional fund.
Why mentioned: Used as the "Iconic Fund Breakdown" — a case study in how pre-institutional angel track records can compound into major funds.
Quote: "Aydin Senkut cashed out as Google's first PM and wrote $25K–$150K angel checks into three dozen startups, turning his own money into the track record that built a $900M Fund X."

Ribbit Capital

Description: Fintech-focused VC firm founded by Micky Malka in 2012; portfolio includes Revolut, Robinhood, Nubank, Coinbase, and Credit Karma.
Why mentioned: Featured in podcast section for its unconventional firm structure.
Quote: "No partner is assigned to a company, decisions are made as a group, and the whole team reads his inbox. He calls it his sixth startup and the one he'll never have to sell."

DoNotPay / Browder Capital

Description: DoNotPay is a consumer legal AI company; Browder Capital is its founder's solo-GP pre-seed fund backed by Sequoia LPs.
Why mentioned: Founder Joshua Browder is highlighted as a case study in founder-turned-investor who prioritizes grit over IQ.
Quote: "He breaks down why grit beats IQ when evaluating founders, how his one-founder-at-a-time model works, and why he'd tell almost anyone to start a company before starting a fund."

Legion

Description: GP/LP marketplace with fund admin, secondary liquidity, and $300M+ in investor capital flows.
Why mentioned: Anchor partner; also launched "SPV Confessions," a public archive of SPV deal horror stories.
Quote: "A public archive of real stories about SPV deals gone wrong: hidden markups, fees on fees, allocations nobody can verify, managers who vanish when things go sideways."

Harmonic

Description: Real-time data platform aggregating intelligence on 30M+ companies and 190M+ people, AI-powered.
Why mentioned: Powers the newsletter's "Seed-to-Scale Signal" fund ranking methodology.
Quote: "Using a custom data model powered by Harmonic, we score funds based on the stage, round size, and whether they led the seed."

Tapestry VC

Description: Emerging VC fund; Fund III is $80M.
Why mentioned: Subject of the Emerging Manager Q&A; Patrick Murphy's journey from zero LP relationships to closing a fund is highlighted.
Quote: "Patrick Murphy aimed at sovereign wealth funds and had never met an LP. The first cheque to clear was $100,000, from one person."

Carta

Description: Equity management and data platform; publishes VC market reports.
Why mentioned: Source of the "State of Pre-Seed: Q2 2026" report and the 400-fund power law data.
Quote: "400+ funds, one power law: median VC returns 1.38x, the top 1% return 13x." — Peter Walker, Carta

Rings AI

Description: CRM built for VCs and LPs, with auto-enriched data on 100M+ contacts and relationship-mapping.
Why mentioned: Newsletter sponsor/partner.
Quote: "An intelligent CRM built for VCs and LPs with auto-enriched data on 100M+ contacts, and a visual map of who-knows-who across your network."

Cura

Description: VC portfolio intelligence tool connecting Granola notes, iMessage, LinkedIn data, and more.
Why mentioned: Newsletter sponsor/partner.
Quote: "VC portfolio intelligence on autopilot that connects your Granola notes, iMessage, LinkedIn data and more to automate support and intelligence."

Wonderstruck

Description: Storytelling and design studio for venture-backed companies.
Why mentioned: Newsletter sponsor; trusted by 1517, Kindred, Sunflower, and 200+ founders.
Quote: "The storytelling and design studio venture-backed companies call when they outgrow their brand."

4. People Identified

Pavel Prata

Description: Founder of Murph Capital; newsletter author and emerging GP/LP ecosystem operator.
Why mentioned: Author; curates GP/LP insights and runs the Murph Capital fund-of-funds.
Quote: "This is my monthly brain-dump of the most useful stuff I've come across as an operator in the emerging GP/LP world."

Aydin Senkut

Description: Founder of Felicis Ventures; former Google first PM.
Why mentioned: Case study in the "Iconic Fund Breakdown" on building pre-institutional track records.
Quote: "Before he raised a dollar of outside money, Senkut was Google's first PM. He took that payout and started writing $25K–$150K checks into about three dozen startups."

Micky Malka

Description: Founder of Ribbit Capital (2012); backed Revolut, Robinhood, Nubank, Coinbase, Credit Karma.
Why mentioned: Featured in podcast for Ribbit's unconventional, consensus-driven, non-siloed fund structure.
Quote: "He calls it his sixth startup and the one he'll never have to sell, because by his own standard the best entrepreneurs never do."

Helen Min

Description: Former marketing operator at early-stage Facebook and Plaid; founder of Articulate, a $10M pre-seed fund.
Why mentioned: Podcast feature; speaks to why LPs discount angel track records and her practice of investing before founders have a pitch deck.
Quote: "She invests before founders even have a pitch deck."

Joshua Browder

Description: Founder of DoNotPay (started pre-Stanford); now GP of Browder Capital (solo-GP, Fund IV), backed by Sequoia as an LP.
Why mentioned: Podcast feature; embodies the operator-turned-investor archetype.
Quote: "He breaks down why grit beats IQ when evaluating founders...and why he'd tell almost anyone to start a company before starting a fund."

Patrick Murphy

Description: GP at Tapestry VC, currently raising Fund III ($80M).
Why mentioned: Subject of the Emerging Manager Q&A; bootstrapped his LP network from zero.
Quote: "Patrick Murphy aimed at sovereign wealth funds and had never met an LP. The first cheque to clear was $100,000, from one person."

Michael Kim

Description: Partner at Cendana Capital, a prominent fund-of-funds focused on seed GPs.
Why mentioned: Highlighted for his framework on what LPs want to see in seed GP portfolio construction.
Quote: "LPs will want to see that the GP can identify non-consensus founders who ultimately build (and exit) consensus companies AND have access to exceptional [founders]."

Meghan Reynolds

Description: Investor at Altimeter Capital.
Why mentioned: Featured tweet on shifting LP sentiment from valuation anxiety toward pacing and growth sustainability.
Quote: "For a yr+ it's been a focus on the same small set of companies, same concerns (valuations), same needs (liquidity)."

Konstantine Buhler

Description: Partner at Sequoia Capital.
Why mentioned: Led a 20-year study of tech hype vs. actual company formation using Hacker News data.
Quote: "Should you chase hype or ignore it?...We dug into 20 years of hype data."

Erik Bruckner

Description: Founder of Bruckner Ventures; hard tech VC.
Why mentioned: Featured tweet outlining a practitioner's "green flags" litmus test for hard tech investing.
Quote: "Hard tech VC green flags: has actually built shit, driven a forklift / owns steel toes, walks the factory floor before requesting data room, knows a 40-week lead time will kill you."

Steve Kim

Description: Investor at Verdis Investment Management.
Why mentioned: Cited for the mathematical insight that one 100x outcome moves fund TVPI far more than eliminating all losses.
Quote: "Fixing every loss moves TVPI 0.40x, one 100x moves it 2.74x."

Peter Walker

Description: Head of Insights at Carta.
Why mentioned: Source of the 400-fund VC power law data point.
Quote: "400+ funds, one power law: median VC returns 1.38x, the top 1% return 13x."

Dan Gray

Description: Associated with Odin (LP/VC platform).
Why mentioned: Published both a LinkedIn post ranking VC firms by DPI and a longread on the futility of such rankings — a notable self-aware tension.
Quote: "What happens when you rank VC firms by DPI" + "The futility of ranking VC firms."

5. Operating Insights

1. Build a Track Record Before You Build a Fund The most durable GP credibilities are established through personal capital deployed before institutional fundraising begins. Felicis is the template: small checks, personal money, real outcomes.

"Before he raised a dollar of outside money, Senkut was Google's first PM. He took that payout and started writing $25K–$150K checks into about three dozen startups."

2. Hard Tech VCs Must Have Operational Fluency, Not Just Financial Fluency For hard tech investing, the due diligence process itself is a differentiator — walking factory floors, understanding supply chain lead times, and knowing when capex is a moat versus a liability.

"Hard tech VC green flags: walks the factory floor before requesting data room, knows a 40-week lead time will kill you, knows when capex is a liability and when it's a moat." — Erik Bruckner

3. Invest in Founders Before They Have a Pitch Deck The earliest conviction-driven check — before any polished narrative exists — is both a sourcing advantage and a signal of genuine conviction.

Helen Min "invests before founders even have a pitch deck."

6. Overlooked Insights

1. SPV Market Has a Transparency and Ethics Problem Legion's "SPV Confessions" archive documents systemic issues — hidden markups, unverifiable allocations, fee stacking, and unresponsive managers — that suggest the SPV market has matured without corresponding accountability infrastructure.

"A public archive of real stories about SPV deals gone wrong: hidden markups, fees on fees, allocations nobody can verify, managers who vanish when things go sideways. Worth a read before you wire into your next deal."

This is underreported relative to how much LP capital flows through SPVs.

2. AI x Life Sciences Is an Emerging Fund Category With Deep Operator Pedigree A new Fund I manager raising $25M is specifically focused on AI x Life Sciences, led by a former operator who built commercial partnerships across biopharma and health systems before moving to investing — suggesting this intersection is mature enough to support dedicated thematic funds.

"An outstanding manager from our network who is raising a $25M Fund I with a deep focus on AI x Life Sciences, led by a former operator-investor with a decade in pharmatech and techbio, including building commercial partnerships across biopharma and health systems before moving to the investing side."