Edition #12: 23 New Funds, Consensus…

1. Key Themes

Theme 1: The "Concentration Era" — Capital Is Collapsing Into Fewer Hands at Every Level

The VC ecosystem is undergoing a structural compression, with LP dollars, fund deployments, and company-level investments all funneling into an increasingly small number of winners.

"In Q1 2026, the top 5 VC firms captured 73.1% of all LP commitments (vs 12 funds captured 75% of LP dollars in 2025)." — Pavel Prata, R136 Ventures

"We are in the age of consensus capital: 1 - Almost 75% of all LP $ raised by 5 funds. 2 - Almost 75% of all VC $ invested in 5 companies." — Nico Wittenborn, Adjacent

This is not merely a fundraising trend — it reflects a structural shift in how power accrues across the entire stack: from LPs to GPs to portfolio companies.

Theme 2: Large and Small VC Are Now Genuinely Different Asset Classes

The barbell between mega-funds and emerging managers has widened to the point where they can no longer be evaluated on the same framework or LP allocation logic.

"The barbell between large and small firms is as wide as it's ever been. These are genuinely two distinct asset classes now, and LPs should treat them that way." — Samir Kaji, Allocate

"Power laws haven't disappeared — they've just concentrated further as mega-funds scale into the billions. The core tension in venture is no longer returns vs. risk, but extreme right-tail conviction vs. LP pressure for liquidity in a world where the best companies take 10–15 years to exit." — David Clark, VenCap (as summarized in podcast section)

Theme 3: Distribution Is Becoming a Competitive Moat for VCs

A new model is emerging where audience reach and media presence are positioned as value-add advantages that rival — or even surpass — capital alone.

"Jake Paul and Geoffrey Woo…argue that traditional VC is being disrupted by a new model where distribution is as powerful as capital. Paul makes the case that attention is the scarce resource founders actually need, and that writing checks without an audience is quickly becoming the weaker hand." — Newsletter summary of 20VC episode

This connects to the broader trend of VC media as a fundraising and differentiation tool, with the newsletter itself referencing "The three waves of VC media and why Wave 3.0 is the last one you can catch."

Theme 4: Seed-to-Scale Conversion as a Real-Time Alpha Signal

The newsletter introduces a proprietary methodology — the "Seed-to-Scale Signal" — for measuring seed-picking quality before DPI materializes, using weighted scoring across stage, round size, and lead status.

"A fund that appears once could be lucky. A fund that shows up three months in a row with multiple hits is telling you something about the quality of their picking." — Pavel Prata

"Each seed-to-upround conversion is scored using three factors…Stage Weight – Series C = 3x, Series B = 2x, Series A = 1x…Lead Bonus – If the fund led the original seed round, the score gets a 1.5x multiplier." — Newsletter methodology section

This is a signal-before-DPI framework — highly relevant for LPs evaluating emerging managers too early in the fund lifecycle for traditional performance metrics to be meaningful.

Theme 5: Contrarian Vintage & Manager Selection — The Case for Emerging Managers Right Now

Despite a brutal LP environment for emerging managers, the historical data on vintage concentration suggests the current moment may be exactly when to lean in.

"Emerging managers are the contrarian bet of the decade: even as LP allocations to them are down 81% from 2021…only 6 vintage years produced 85% of all VC returns." — Noah Lichtenstein, Crossover VC (as summarized in podcast section)

2. Contrarian Perspectives

Emerging Managers Are the Contrarian Bet of the Decade — Precisely When LP Capital Has Abandoned Them

LP allocations to emerging managers are down 81% from 2021, creating a supply/demand dislocation. Historically, the best returns cluster in a handful of vintage years, and the current withdrawal of capital may be creating exactly those conditions.

"Emerging managers are the contrarian bet of the decade: even as LP allocations to them are down 81% from 2021…only 6 vintage years produced 85% of all VC returns." — Noah Lichtenstein, Crossover VC

The implication: the crowd is fleeing emerging managers at precisely the moment historical patterns suggest concentration of future returns.

Backing "Unqualified" Founders (Dropouts, No Pedigree) Outperforms the Market

The 1517 Fund I case study directly challenges the conventional thesis that pedigree and credential are proxies for founder quality. A $20M fund backing founders "no one else would write a check to" delivered 9.65x TVPI and 4.41x DPI.

"William Blake and David Strachman left the Thiel Fellowship to back founders no one else would write a check to – too young, no degree, no pedigree. As of January 2026: 9.65x TVPI, 4.41x DPI." — Pavel Prata on 1517 Fund I

Audience Reach May Now Be a Stronger VC Value-Add Than Capital

The conventional LP pitch centers on capital, network, and operational support. Anti Fund argues that audience — measured in followers and media distribution — is a scarcer and more differentiated resource for founders.

"Writing checks without an audience is quickly becoming the weaker hand." — Jake Paul & Geoffrey Woo, Anti Fund (as summarized in 20VC episode summary)

With Anti Fund already in Ramp, Anduril, and Cognition with a $30M fund and 70M+ followers, this isn't purely theoretical.

3. Companies Identified

Cursor

Description: AI coding tool company
Why Mentioned: Case study in fund size/manager selection implications; Alameda Research invested $200K at pre-seed in 2022 and exited at cost during FTX bankruptcy, missing a $60B outcome
Quote: "Alameda Research invested $200k to take half of the company's $400k pre-seed in 2022. Its stake was sold off in FTX bankruptcy proceedings in 2023 for………$200k." — Jeff Weinstein, FJ Labs

Loom

Description: Video messaging platform (acquired)
Why Mentioned: Cited as a notable outcome from 1517 Fund I; seed investment in 2016 generated ~$975M in value
Quote: "@loom (Seed, 2016 → ~$975M" — Pavel Prata on 1517 Fund I

Ramp

Description: Corporate finance and spend management platform
Why Mentioned: Portfolio holding of Anti Fund, cited as evidence that the audience-as-moat model attracts top-tier deal flow
Quote: "With 70M+ followers and a $30M fund already in Ramp, Anduril, and Cognition…" — Newsletter summary of 20VC episode

Anduril

Description: Defense technology company
Why Mentioned: Portfolio holding of Anti Fund; used to validate the distribution-first VC thesis
Quote: "With 70M+ followers and a $30M fund already in Ramp, Anduril, and Cognition…" — Newsletter summary of 20VC episode

Cognition

Description: AI software development company
Why Mentioned: Portfolio holding of Anti Fund; used alongside Ramp and Anduril to validate the Anti Fund model
Quote: "With 70M+ followers and a $30M fund already in Ramp, Anduril, and Cognition…" — Newsletter summary of 20VC episode

Harmonic

Description: Startup intelligence and data platform
Why Mentioned: Newsletter sponsor and data partner powering the "Seed-to-Scale Signal" feature; aggregates real-time data on 30M+ companies and 190M+ people
Quote: "Harmonic aggregates real-time data on 30M+ companies and 190M+ people to surface the signals that actually matter – all through AI-powered workflow."

Redbud VC

Description: Emerging seed-stage fund ($25M Fund II)
Why Mentioned: Featured in Emerging Manager Q&A; thesis is that the best founders are not where most VCs are looking; raised an oversubscribed fund
Quote: "Redbud VC bet the best founders aren't where VCs are looking and raised an oversubscribed $25M fund to prove it."

1517 Fund

Description: Early-stage fund backing non-traditional founders
Why Mentioned: Iconic fund breakdown; $20M Fund I (2015) delivered 9.65x TVPI and 4.41x DPI by backing founders with no degree or pedigree
Quote: "Two Thiel Fellowship alumni bet on the dropouts and the overlooked and turned contrarian conviction into 4.41x DPI and 9.65x TVPI."

Crossover VC

Description: Fund-of-funds focused on emerging managers
Why Mentioned: Featured in podcast; argues emerging managers are the contrarian bet of the decade despite 81% decline in LP allocations
Quote: "Tracking 120 data points per company, he breaks down why only 6 vintage years produced 85% of all VC returns."

Anti Fund

Description: Non-traditional VC fund co-founded by Jake Paul and Geoffrey Woo
Why Mentioned: Argues distribution/audience is the new competitive moat in VC; $30M fund with portfolio including Ramp, Anduril, and Cognition
Quote: "Paul makes the case that attention is the scarce resource founders actually need, and that writing checks without an audience is quickly becoming the weaker hand."

FTX / Alameda Research

Description: Defunct crypto exchange and trading firm
Why Mentioned: Infamous case of a seed investor (Alameda) entering Cursor at $200K and exiting at cost during bankruptcy, missing the $60B outcome
Quote: "Who was the first investor in Cursor? The GOAT investor SBF of course." — Jeff Weinstein, FJ Labs (sarcastically)

4. People Identified

Pavel Prata

Description: Author of Murph Capital newsletter; operator at R136 Ventures
Why Mentioned: Author; coined the "concentration era" framing and developed the Seed-to-Scale Signal methodology
Quote: "I think we're entering a 'concentration era'…In Q1 2026, the top 5 VC firms captured 73.1% of all LP commitments."

Nico Wittenborn

Description: Investor at Adjacent
Why Mentioned: Coined the "75/75 rule" and "age of consensus capital" framing that anchors the edition's central thesis
Quote: "We are in the age of consensus capital: 1 - Almost 75% of all LP $ raised by 5 funds. 2 - Almost 75% of all VC $ invested in 5 companies."

Samir Kaji

Description: Founder/CEO of Allocate
Why Mentioned: Articulated the "two distinct asset classes" framework for large vs. small VC firms; highly cited voice in LP/GP discourse
Quote: "The barbell between large and small firms is as wide as it's ever been. These are genuinely two distinct asset classes now, and LPs should treat them that way."

Jeff Weinstein

Description: Investor at FJ Labs
Why Mentioned: Surfaced the Alameda/Cursor story — a viral, high-signal cautionary tale about poor position management and the cost of forced liquidation
Quote: "Alameda Research invested $200k to take half of the company's $400k pre-seed in 2022. Its stake was sold off in FTX bankruptcy proceedings in 2023 for………$200k."

Nichole Wischoff

Description: Founder of Wischoff VC
Why Mentioned: Offered a practitioner's view on seed fund viability, portfolio construction, and geographic network requirements in the concentration era
Quote: "Assuming you have a very strong network in SF, NYC, LA (and probably Tel Aviv) with access to great [founders]…"

David Clark

Description: CIO of VenCap International
Why Mentioned: Made the case that power laws have concentrated further as mega-funds scale; argued the primary tension in VC is now conviction vs. LP liquidity pressure; also wrote on Cursor's $60B exit implications for fund sizing
Quote: "The core tension in venture is no longer returns vs. risk, but extreme right-tail conviction vs. LP pressure for liquidity in a world where the best companies take 10–15 years to exit."

Noah Lichtenstein

Description: Founder of Crossover VC (fund-of-funds)
Why Mentioned: Made the data-driven case for emerging managers as a contrarian LP bet; tracks 120 data points per company; cited the 6-vintage-year concentration of returns
Quote: "Only 6 vintage years produced 85% of all VC returns, and mega-funds have quietly become a different product entirely."

Jake Paul

Description: Co-founder of Anti Fund; content creator with 70M+ followers
Why Mentioned: Represents the vanguard of the distribution-as-moat VC thesis; portfolio includes Ramp, Anduril, Cognition
Quote: "Attention is the scarce resource founders actually need, and writing checks without an audience is quickly becoming the weaker hand."

Geoffrey Woo

Description: Co-founder of Anti Fund
Why Mentioned: Co-leads Anti Fund alongside Jake Paul; making the case that traditional VC is being disrupted by audience-native investors
Quote: "Traditional VC is being disrupted by a new model where distribution is as powerful as capital."

William Blake & David Strachman

Description: Co-founders of 1517 Fund; Thiel Fellowship alumni
Why Mentioned: Built the iconic 1517 Fund I ($20M, 2015) that delivered 9.65x TVPI by backing non-pedigree founders; contrarian thesis validated by returns
Quote: "Left the Thiel Fellowship to back founders no one else would write a check to – too young, no degree, no pedigree. As of January 2026: 9.65x TVPI, 4.41x DPI."

Brett Calhoun

Description: GP at Redbud VC
Why Mentioned: Featured in Emerging Manager Q&A; raised an oversubscribed $25M Fund II with a thesis centered on finding great founders outside of where VCs typically look
Quote: "Redbud VC bet the best founders aren't where VCs are looking and raised an oversubscribed $25M fund to prove it."

Lak Ananth

Description: Managing Partner at N47
Why Mentioned: Wrote on how sovereign wealth funds have quietly taken over VC's LP base — a structural shift with significant implications for emerging managers
Quote: (Title cited): "How sovereign wealth funds quietly took over VC's LP base."

Peter Walker

Description: Head of Insights at Carta
Why Mentioned: Wrote on why emerging managers and mega-funds are not actually competing — reinforcing the "two asset classes" thesis with Carta's data
Quote: (Title cited): "Why emerging managers and mega funds aren't actually competing."

Laurie Owen

Description: Principal at Refinery Media
Why Mentioned: Contributed two pieces on VC fund marketing — both a guest post for Murph Capital and a standalone piece on how top-performing firms should approach marketing
Quote: (Title cited): "How should emerging managers approach marketing?" and "How the firm with the best returns should do marketing."

Yoni Rechtman

Description: Partner at Slow Ventures
Why Mentioned: Wrote a piece titled "I only care about terminal value" — a philosophy piece relevant to long-hold, conviction-based investing
Quote: (Title cited): "I only care about terminal value."

Lucas Vaz

Description: Investor at Ravelin Cap
Why Mentioned: Authored "The narrow path: the state of seed, and a way forward" — a longread on seed fund survival in the concentration era
Quote: (Title cited): "The narrow path: the state of seed, and a way forward."

Beezer Clarkson & Nick Chirls

Description: Hosts of the Origins podcast
Why Mentioned: Hosted David Clark for a conversation on power law concentration and the VC liquidity tension
Quote: "David Clark joins Beezer Clarkson and Nick Chirls on Origins to argue that power laws haven't disappeared — they've just concentrated further."

5. Operating Insights

Seed Fund GPs: Lead the Round to Maximize Downstream Signal Value

The Seed-to-Scale Signal methodology rewards lead investors with a 1.5x score multiplier, reflecting the pricing discipline and conviction required to lead a seed round. For GPs managing emerging funds, leading rounds — rather than participating — is not just a portfolio construction choice; it is a demonstrable alpha signal to future LPs before DPI can speak.

"Lead Bonus – If the fund led the original seed round, the score gets a 1.5x multiplier. Leading a seed requires pricing discipline and conviction – worth rewarding when that bet pays off."

For Emerging Managers: Geographic Network Is a Prerequisite, Not an Advantage

Nichole Wischoff's commentary makes clear that seed fund viability is contingent on having a strong, active network in the key hubs — SF, NYC, LA, and increasingly Tel Aviv. This is a tactical prerequisite for deal access, not a differentiator.

"Assuming you have a very strong network in SF, NYC, LA (and probably Tel Aviv) with access to great [founders]…"

Distribution Is Now a Fundable Thesis — Build Your Audience Before Your Fund

Anti Fund's success with Ramp, Anduril, and Cognition demonstrates that audience scale is a legitimate entry point for deal access and LP fundraising. For operators considering a fund, building a media presence first may be the new fund I strategy.

"Writing checks without an audience is quickly becoming the weaker hand." — Jake Paul, Anti Fund

6. Overlooked Insights

Sovereign Wealth Funds Have Quietly Reshaped the LP Base

Lak Ananth's piece on sovereign wealth funds taking over VC's LP base is listed without elaboration in the newsletter — but the implications are significant. SWFs have different return timelines, political constraints, and concentration preferences than traditional institutional LPs (endowments, pension funds). If SWFs now dominate LP commitments, they may be actively accelerating the concentration trend toward mega-funds that offer the scale, compliance infrastructure, and brand recognition SWFs prefer.

(Title cited): "How sovereign wealth funds quietly took over VC's LP base." — Lak Ananth, N47

Only 6 Vintage Years Produced 85% of All VC Returns

Noah Lichtenstein's data point — that just 6 vintage years account for 85% of all VC returns — is mentioned in passing within a podcast summary but receives no deeper analysis. This is one of the most consequential statistics in the article: it implies that timing of entry into the asset class (as an LP) matters enormously, and that being out of the market in the wrong years is the primary risk — not manager selection alone.

"Only 6 vintage years produced 85% of all VC returns." — Noah Lichtenstein, Crossover VC