The Memo - 28/Jun/2026
1. Key Themes
AI Scale Has Reached a Historic Inflection Point
The mid-2026 period is defined by scale metrics that would have seemed implausible even two years ago, signaling that AI is no longer a niche technology but a dominant infrastructure layer.
"ChatGPT hit one billion monthly app users, Anthropic's annualised revenue surged from US$9B to US$30B in four months, 17 new trillion-parameter models launched outside the big five labs, and total AI output surpassed total human language output for the first time."
Frontier Model Access Is Becoming Restricted — A New Competitive Moat
A years-long trajectory of graduated restriction is culminating in the active banning of frontier model releases, reshaping who can build on state-of-the-art AI.
"Of course, the real story here is the banning of frontier models... and it began in anger this month, though the foundations were laid years ago."
Early access, historically, was not just a convenience — it was a structural advantage:
"Those who have more experience using and building with the technology may have first mover advantage – for example, they may have more time to develop better prompt engineering techniques." (OpenAI, DALL-E 2 analysis, Apr/2022)
Pricing Competition Among Frontier Models Is Intensifying
The GPT-5.6 series reveals aggressive price differentiation as a competitive tactic, with OpenAI undercutting Anthropic at the flagship level.
"Sol introduces an 'ultra mode' that deploys subagents to accelerate complex tasks, with pricing at US$5/$30 per MTok (compare to Claude Mythos/Fable at $10/$50 per MTok)."
AI Infrastructure Is Scaling Beyond Software Into Energy and Hardware
The xAI gas turbine approval and the Cerebras deployment of GPT-5.6 at 750 tok/s signal that the AI arms race is increasingly fought at the physical infrastructure layer.
"The model also launches on Cerebras at up to 750 tok/s in Jul/2026" and the contents reference "xAI US$2.8B gas turbines approved" as a policy-level development.
AI Is Entering Specialized Vertical Markets
Midjourney's move into medical imaging and Paradromics being highlighted under "Interesting Stuff" suggest frontier AI capabilities are now being applied in high-stakes, regulated verticals.
The newsletter lists "Midjourney Medical, enterprise AI spending, Paradromics…" as key items under "The Interesting Stuff" section, indicating both consumer AI brands and neurotech startups are converging on specialized domains.
2. Contrarian Perspectives
Open-sourcing AI is not democratization — it is a strategic risk that insiders acknowledged years ago and are now acting on. The prevailing public narrative frames open-source AI as democratizing and beneficial. But a consistent internal consensus among AI leaders has long held the opposite view, and policy is now catching up.
Ilya Sutskever, Mar/2023: "We were wrong. Flat out, we were wrong. If you believe, as we do, that at some point, AI — AGI — is going to be extremely, unbelievably potent, then it just does not make sense to open-source. It is a bad idea… I fully expect that in a few years it's going to be completely obvious to everyone that open-sourcing AI is just not wise."
And Demis Hassabis echoed this even earlier:
"The AI industry's culture of publishing its findings openly may soon need to end." (TIME, Jan/2023)
Preferential early access to frontier models is an antitrust issue, not just an ethics one. Most commentary frames OpenAI's cronyism as a reputational concern. The Brookings Institution framing — cited from the author's own work — elevates it to a structural market power question.
"Preferential access has the potential to allow the producers of foundation models or their affiliates to vertically expand their market power without market competition, with all the associated antitrust implications." (Alan D. Thompson, quoted by Brookings, Sep/2023)
The real AI competitive moat in 2026 is not model quality — it is access timing. The article implies that by the time the public evaluates a frontier model, insiders have already built durable advantages on top of it.
"Simply having access to an exclusive good can have indirect effects and real commercial value... those who have more experience using and building with the technology may have first mover advantage." (OpenAI, Apr/2022)
3. Companies Identified
OpenAI Description: Frontier AI lab; creator of GPT series Why mentioned: Released GPT-5.6 Sol (flagship), Terra (balanced), and Luna (low-cost) in limited preview; conducting large-scale red teaming Quote: "OpenAI dedicated over 700,000 A100-equivalent GPU hours to automated red teaming focused on universal jailbreak discovery."
Anthropic Description: AI safety-focused lab; creator of Claude models Why mentioned: Used as pricing benchmark against GPT-5.6; cited for explosive revenue growth Quote: "Anthropic's annualised revenue surged from US$9B to US$30B in four months"; Claude Mythos/Fable priced at "$10/$50 per MTok" vs. Sol's $5/$30.
Midjourney Description: AI image generation company Why mentioned: Expanding into medical imaging, signaling vertical market entry Quote: Listed under "The Interesting Stuff" as "Midjourney Medical" — a notable brand extension into a regulated domain.
Cerebras Description: AI chip and compute company Why mentioned: Partnering with OpenAI to deploy GPT-5.6 at extraordinary inference speeds Quote: "The model also launches on Cerebras at up to 750 tok/s in Jul/2026."
xAI Description: Elon Musk's AI company Why mentioned: Received approval for US$2.8B in gas turbines, highlighting the energy infrastructure dimension of AI scaling Quote: "xAI US$2.8B gas turbines approved" listed under Policy.
Paradromics Description: Neurotechnology / brain-computer interface company Why mentioned: Flagged as notable in "The Interesting Stuff," suggesting relevance at the AI-neurotech intersection Quote: Listed alongside "Midjourney Medical, enterprise AI spending, Paradromics…"
Stripe Description: Payments infrastructure company Why mentioned: Example of cronyistic early access to GPT-4, connected to OpenAI's President and CEO Sam Altman Quote: "OpenAI's President giving his former company Stripe early access to the model… at least one of these partners – Stripe – has also received early stage investments from OpenAI CEO Sam Altman."
4. People Identified
Dr. Alan D. Thompson Description: Author of The Memo; AI researcher and advisor at LifeArchitect.ai Why mentioned: Author; cited by Brookings Institution and presented at NeurIPS; rates AGI probability at 97% and ASI at 2/50 Quote: "OpenAI cronyism and preferential treatment. Some 'friends' of OpenAI got access to the GPT-4 model eight months ago, in August 2022."
Ilya Sutskever Description: Co-founder and former Chief Scientist at OpenAI Why mentioned: Provided a definitive on-record reversal on open-source AI strategy Quote: "We were wrong. Flat out, we were wrong... I fully expect that in a few years it's going to be completely obvious to everyone that open-sourcing AI is just not wise."
Demis Hassabis Description: CEO of Google DeepMind Why mentioned: Early public signal that the open-publishing culture in AI would need to end Quote: "The AI industry's culture of publishing its findings openly may soon need to end."
Sepp Hochreiter Description: Machine learning pioneer; professor; known for LSTM architecture Why mentioned: Presented Alan Thompson's GPT-4 visualization at NeurIPS, lending it academic credibility Quote: Described as "Machine learning pioneer Prof Sepp Hochreiter" presenting Thompson's Mar/2023 visualization at NeurIPS.
5. Operating Insights
Tier your AI model selection by task economics, not just capability. GPT-5.6's three-tier structure (Sol/Terra/Luna) mirrors an emerging market norm where operators can significantly reduce API costs by routing tasks to the appropriate model tier. Terra is described as "competitive with GPT-5.5 at 2x cheaper" — meaning cost-conscious operators who default to flagship models are likely overspending.
"Terra (balanced, competitive with GPT-5.5 at 2x cheaper), and Luna (lowest cost)."
Invest in early access relationships with AI labs — the first-mover window is structural, not temporary. The article documents a consistent pattern: entities with early access to frontier models built durable advantages before competitors even had API access. For operators building AI-native products, cultivating lab relationships or joining early access programs is a strategic priority, not a nice-to-have.
"Those who have more experience using and building with the technology may have first mover advantage – for example, they may have more time to develop better prompt engineering techniques."
Agentic 'ultra mode' features signal the next product design paradigm. Sol's ultra mode — which "deploys subagents to accelerate complex tasks" — is an early signal that AI product design is shifting from single-turn prompting to orchestrated multi-agent workflows. Operators building on GPT-5.6 should architect for agent-to-agent coordination from the start, not retrofit it.
6. Overlooked Insights
Total AI output has now surpassed total human language output — with underappreciated implications for data quality. This milestone is mentioned in passing but carries significant weight for anyone relying on web-scraped or publicly available data for training or retrieval. As AI-generated content dominates the information ecosystem, the signal-to-noise ratio in training data and knowledge bases degrades — a compounding problem for every AI product built on internet-scale data.
"Total AI output surpassed total human language output for the first time."
Seventeen new trillion-parameter models launched outside the big five labs — a decentralization signal obscured by the access-restriction narrative. While the article's dominant theme is increasing restriction of frontier models, the simultaneous proliferation of massive models from non-Big Five actors is a counterforce that receives no analysis. This tension — centralized restriction vs. distributed capability — is likely the defining regulatory and competitive dynamic of the next 12–24 months.
"17 new trillion-parameter models launched outside the big five labs."