Don't ask the group chat for permission

1. Key Themes

Theme 1: Consensus Is a Crutch — Price and Independent Judgment Are Separate Variables

Rechtman's central argument is that conflating "non-consensus" with "cheap" is a category error. True non-consensus investing means forming independent judgment, not just buying what's out of favor.

"Non consensus can either be an input (price) or process (judgement). In the former, you're acknowledging/claiming that only way for something to be non-consensus is for it to be cheap. The idea of being a 'contrarian' while paying top quartile prices is obviously insane nonsense."

The flip side is equally lazy:

"Believing that something being out of favor makes it good is just as specious and lazy as the opposite belief: that something being expensive makes it good. In either case, you're outsourcing judgment to others."

Theme 2: Power Laws Justify Paying Up — But Only With Real Conviction

In venture, the distribution of outcomes is extreme enough that paying a premium for the best opportunities is rationally defensible — but only if the conviction is independently derived, not socially borrowed.

"In an industry/asset class with power law outcomes, it's totally reasonable to pay multiples more for the 99th percentile than the 90th percentile of quality opportunities, but caveat emptor. Distinguishing between those without real meaningful data beyond what others think is basically impossible or, at the very least, approximates to a random walk."

Theme 3: Internal Conviction as a Competitive Advantage for Founders and Investors

Rechtman extends the principle beyond investing to company-building: founders who require social validation before acting are structurally disadvantaged.

"King making is permission-based; it only works on the basis of elite buy-in/consensus [...] At Slow, we believe deeply in founder-led/internal paths to conviction. Whether that happens heads-down in a notebook (calling your shot) or heads-up in the market (calling your customer) doesn't matter... But it has to come from you, not us."

Theme 4: GLP-1s as an Underappreciated Mega-Theme Obscured by AI

Rechtman flags weight-loss drugs as a historically significant category being overshadowed by the AI narrative cycle.

"GLP-1s are a bigger business than AI. Continue to watch this space. Were it not for AI, they would be widely viewed as the most important thing in the world right now."

Theme 5: Cybersecurity as an Emerging Priority Investment Theme

The Delve/Mercor hack episode and Slow Ventures' upcoming security conference signal that cybersecurity is rising on the firm's investment agenda.

"We're hosting founders, operators, security leaders for a ≈100 person cyber security mini conference in NY next month. We'll have Anthropic's head cyber and NatSec policy for a fireside chat and panels with some excellent security operators and investors."

2. Contrarian Perspectives

Contrarian 1: Being "Cheap" Is Not the Same as Being "Non-Consensus" — and Confusing the Two Is Dangerous

The dominant VC culture celebrates contrarianism as a badge of honor, typically operationalized as finding underpriced deals. Rechtman argues this is intellectually hollow — it merely substitutes one form of herd behavior for another.

"It's easy to hate paying high prices but do you have the courage to hate paying low prices?"

Supporting evidence: He notes that at seed/pre-seed, valuation itself is unreliable signal — "any reasonable DCF/the true FMV of every early-stage investment is approximately zero" — meaning price alone conveys almost no information about quality.

Contrarian 2: Early-Stage Competitive Dynamics Are Largely Irrelevant to Outcomes

Against the conventional founder and investor obsession with competitive moats and "killing" rivals, Rechtman argues competition barely matters at the early stage.

"Companies don't really succeed and fail on the basis of some competitor, at least not until they're much further along. We don't need to kill the other crabs to escape from the bucket."

This directly challenges the zero-sum framing that dominates most pitch narratives and investor diligence frameworks.

Contrarian 3: Seed-Stage Assessment Has Far Less Precision Than the Market Believes

This challenges the entire edifice of rigorous early-stage diligence — the implication being that most firms are manufacturing false confidence.

"If I have one core insight and belief at seed/pre-seed, it's this: there's a huge amount of false precision and unreasonable confidence in assessing the best, the worst, and the median opportunities. What 'everybody knows,' what 'the group chat decides,' and what's actually true are not a perfect circle even if it feels really good to believe that they are."

3. Companies Identified

Company	Description	Why Mentioned	Quote
Anthropic	AI safety and research company	Used as an example of a potentially consensus-priced company where paying up may still be justified; also hosting their head of cyber/NatSec policy at Slow's security conference	"You might independently conclude Anthropic really is that good and be right!"
Delve	YC-backed startup (now removed from YC directory)	Called out for alleged fraud against other startups and potential involvement in the Mercor hack; used as a case study in institutional reputation management failure	"YC quietly removed Delve from its directory without issuing a public statement... Delve did a big fraud on a bunch of other startups (allegedly) and might be at least partially responsible for the Mercor hack."
Mercor	AI recruiting platform	Mentioned as a victim of a security breach potentially linked to Delve	"[Delve] might be at least partially responsible for the Mercor hack."
Slow Ventures	Early-stage VC fund (~$325M)	Author's firm; described as leading pre/seed rounds with a focus on founder-led conviction and independent judgment	"I lead pre/seed rounds from a ≈$325M fund. I'm a generalist investor looking for weird takes on important stories: N-of-1 companies taking non-obvious approaches to markets that matter."
NYRF (New York Review of Finance)	Print finance/culture publication	Highlighted as an interesting emerging media product at the intersection of finance and literary culture	"It's great and I like the un-accredited writing in the style of The Economist. It creates the impression that you're peaking behind the curtain of what folks are really saying but can't say."
Redpoint Ventures	Growth and early-stage VC	Referenced for a notable slide in their market update deck	"This is a really fantastic slide from Redpoint's market update deck/post."

4. People Identified

Person	Description	Why Mentioned	Quote
Yoni Rechtman	Partner at Slow Ventures, pre/seed investor	Author; generalist investor focused on "N-of-1 companies taking non-obvious approaches to markets that matter"	"I'm interested in real world businesses, hybrid software companies, AI's second-order effects, healthcare, network effects, and fintech."
Garry Tan	President of Y Combinator	Implicitly criticized for YC's non-committal handling of the Delve controversy	"Stand by your guy or don't, especially if you want to be the self-proclaimed moral voice of tech, as Garry does."

5. Operating Insights

Insight 1: Build Conviction From the Inside Out — Customer Discovery Beats Peer Validation

For founders, the message is direct: seeking validation from investors, peer networks, or "the group chat" before committing is a signal of weak conviction that sophisticated investors will identify.

"We can fund you to conviction/insight or meet you once you have it. But it has to come from you, not us. 'The group chat' is externally derived conviction and is highly permissioned and better suited to those who need permission to build and buy."

Tactical takeaway: Build your case through notebook-level thinking or direct customer discovery before seeking external validation. Show up to investor conversations with your own conviction already formed.

Insight 2: Institutional Silence in a Crisis Is a Worse Comms Strategy Than Either Defense or Condemnation

The YC/Delve situation illustrates a common failure mode: organizations trying to manage reputational risk through inaction end up looking worse than if they had taken a clear position.

"YC quietly removed Delve from its directory without issuing a public statement. I really don't get who that's for — that seems like the most mealy-mouthed, worst version of a comms strategy. Stand by your guy or don't, especially if you want to be the self-proclaimed moral voice of tech."

Tactical takeaway: When a portfolio company or affiliated entity faces controversy, a clear institutional position — in either direction — outperforms deliberate ambiguity in protecting long-term credibility.

Insight 3: In Power-Law Markets, the Relevant Question Is Quality Differentiation, Not Price Optimization

Operators raising capital and investors deploying it should both internalize that top-decile differentiation commands disproportionate premium — but the work of identifying that tier must be done independently.

"It's totally reasonable to pay multiples more for the 99th percentile than the 90th percentile of quality opportunities, but caveat emptor. Distinguishing between those without real meaningful data beyond what others think is basically impossible."

6. Overlooked Insights

Overlooked Insight 1: The Emerging "Three Jobs" Framework for the AI Economy

Briefly cited without elaboration, a framework suggesting the economy is converging toward only three meaningful roles — innovators, marketers, and context carriers — has significant implications for how operators structure teams and how investors assess human capital.

"One of my favorite posters posits that maybe only 3 jobs: innovators, marketers, and context carriers."

This is worth tracking: if AI compresses the job taxonomy this dramatically, it restructures org design, hiring strategy, and where defensible human value actually sits.

Overlooked Insight 2: Print Media Is Quietly Finding a Premium Niche in Finance and Culture

NYRF being delivered in print to a Slow Ventures partner's door — and receiving genuine praise for art direction and advertiser curation — is a small but notable signal that premium print products are finding real purchase with high-value financial audiences.

"The art direction is great down to the partners they've chosen to work with as advertisers."

In a moment when digital media is commoditizing, a well-positioned print product targeting NY financiers with literary ambitions may represent an underexplored media business model.